20211021-招银国际-Heading_into_100mn_MAU_club_4页_867kb

报告摘要

Zhihu (ZH US) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an equity research update on Zhihu (ZH US), focusing on its financial performance, user metrics, and strategic outlook for the third quarter of 2021 (3Q21E) and beyond. CMB International Securities (CMBIS) maintains a BUY rating with a Target Price of US$15, unchanged from the previous estimate. The report highlights Zhihu's progress in user growth, monetization strategies, and its defensive positioning in the challenging internet advertising environment.

Key Financial Highlights

3Q21E Revenue: RMB811mn (+112% YoY), in line with market consensus.
CCS Revenue: RMB305mn (+6x YoY), driven by client expansion and rising CPC.
Advertising Revenue: RMB273mn (+99% YoY), with a 10% QoQ increase.
Paid Membership Revenue: RMB155mn (+18% YoY).
Non-GAAP Net Loss: RMB166mn, better than the consensus of -RMB330mn.
Adjusted Net Profit: RMB-921mn, showing improved performance compared to previous estimates.

User Metrics and Growth

MAU (Monthly Active Users): Expected to reach 100mn in 3Q21E, up 39% YoY.
User Acquisition Efficiency: Improved, contributing to strong MAU growth.
Time Spent on Platform: Increased mildly, supported by deeper video penetration.
Upcoming Upgrades: Expected to enhance user engagement, particularly through video content in 4Q21E.

Strategic Outlook

Content-Commerce Solutions (CCS): Expected to perform well in 4Q21E, especially with strong seasonality in e-commerce campaigns.
Defensive Positioning: Zhihu is relatively defensive compared to other entertainment companies in the challenging advertising environment.
User Momentum: Expected to continue into 2H21E with MAU growth of +37% YoY.

Financial Projections

Metric	FY19A	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn)	671	1,352	2,917	5,462	9,374
YoY Growth (%)	NA	101.7	115.7	87.2	71.6
Adj. Net Profit (RMB mn)	(825)	(337)	(921)	(945)	89
Adj. EPS (RMB)	(2.02)	(0.71)	(1.62)	(1.66)	0.16
P/S (x)	39.6	23.0	12.7	6.8	4.0

Revenue Breakdown

Segment	3Q21E (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)	QoQ Growth (%)
Content-Commerce Solutions	305	571%	+47%
Advertising	273	18%	+10%
Paid Membership	155	99%	+17%
Others	51	238%	+84%

Analyst Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.

Share Performance

1-Month Return: 6.2%
3-Month Return: -10.3%
6-Month Return: 4.5%

Key Ratios

Gross Margin: Improved from 51.5% to 60.4% in FY21E.
Operating Margin: Increased from -51.6% to -4.7% in FY21E.
Adj. Net Margin: Improved from -31.7% to 1.0% in FY21E.
ROE: Improved from -25.6% to 1.4% in FY21E.
P/E (FY23E): 415.3, reflecting high valuation.

Market Position and Risk Factors

Zhihu is positioned as a Q&A-inspired content community with strong user engagement and monetization potential.
The company is expected to maintain a defensive stance amid a soft advertising environment and tightening regulations.
There are potential risks related to market volatility and changes in user behavior.

Disclosure

The report is prepared for the use of intended recipients only.
CMBIS may have investment banking relationships with the companies covered.
The report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities and is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinion and not influenced by conflicts of interest.

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