20210226-招银国际-Guiding_400mn_MAU_in_FY23E_4页_945kb

CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an update on Bilibili (BILI US), focusing on its financial performance and future outlook. It highlights the company's strong quarterly results, guidance for future growth, and the analysts' updated valuation and investment recommendation.

Main Points

Financial Performance Highlights

• 4Q20 Revenue: RMB3.8bn, up 91% YoY, 5% above consensus and 6% above CMBIS estimates.
• Non-GAAP Net Loss: RMB666mn, better than consensus of RMB714mn.
• 1Q21E Revenue Guidance: RMB3.7–3.8bn, up 60–64% YoY, with midpoint 3% above consensus.

User Growth and Market Position

• MAU Guidance: Management raised its MAU target to 400mn in FY23E, higher than the consensus of 350mn.
• User Demographics: 86% of MAU aged below 35, showing strong potential for all-age user expansion.
• MAU Growth: 4Q20 MAU sequential growth of 202mn, +2% QoQ, despite the ecommerce seasonality.
• Brand Perception: Improved to 90% in FY21E, up from 60% in FY20E.

Monetization and Revenue Streams

• Advertising Growth: Accelerated by 149% YoY in 4Q20, driven by game, food & beverage, ecommerce, beauty, and 3C verticals.
• Game Revenue: Grew 30% YoY in 4Q20, with Genshin Impact being a key contributor.
• Live Broadcasting & VAS: Expected to grow 91% YoY in 1Q21E.
• Revenue Breakdown: Advertising is expected to be the fastest-growing segment, with 162% YoY growth in 1Q21E and 115% YoY growth in FY21E.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY (maintained).
• Target Price: US$173, up from US$61.7.
• Current Price: US$129.3.
• Upside Potential: +36.2% from current price to target price.

Financial Projections (FY19A–FY23E)

Key Drivers for Growth

• User Growth: Continued MAU expansion, especially among younger demographics.
• Monetization: Strong performance in advertising, live broadcasting, and VAS.
• Game Development: New games in 2021, such as Sword Art Online and Artery Gear: Fusion, are expected to bring further monetization upside.
• Platform Adaptation: Increasing use of Huahuo platform (花火) for better ad targeting and performance.

Key Financial Ratios

• Gross Margin: Improved from 25.9% (FY21E) to 33.1% (FY22E).
• Operating Margin: Turned positive in FY21E, with -23.3% (FY21E) to -13.8% (FY22E).
• Adj. Net Margin: Improved from -19.1% (FY21E) to -9.4% (FY22E).
• ROE: Rose sharply to 101.5% (FY21E).
• P/S Ratio: Dropped from 42.5 (FY19A) to 8.3 (FY23E), indicating improved valuation.

Stock Data

• Market Cap (US$ mn): 44,910
• Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn): 661.83
• 52w High/Low (US$): 157.7 / 19.3
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 262

Shareholding Structure

• FMR LLC: 4.66%
• Alibaba Group Holding: 3.82%
• Wells Fargo & Co: 2.54%

Share Performance

Analysts

• Sophie Huang: (852) 3900 0889 | sophiehuang@cmbi.com.hk
• Miriam Lu: (852) 3761 8728 | miriamlu@cmbi.com.hk

CMBIS Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10%.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10%.
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIS.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the broad market.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market.

Disclaimer

• The report is not investment advice and not tailored to individual investors.
• CMBIS does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• The value and returns of investments are uncertain and subject to change.
• No liability is accepted for any loss, damage, or expense resulting from reliance on the report.
• The report is intended for specific recipients and not for general distribution.

Auditor

• PwC is the auditor for the report.

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