20150814-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook（2015-08-14）_18页_304kb

Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary (August 14, 2015)

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the U.S. and global cotton and wool markets for the 2015/16 season, including production forecasts, trade dynamics, and demand and stock projections.

U.S. Cotton Textile and Apparel Trade

• Trade Expansion: U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade increased in 2015.

  • Imports: Reached 4.1 billion pounds in the first half of 2015, up nearly 5% from the first half of 2014.
  • Exports: Increased by 6% to 928 million pounds during the same period.
  • Deficit: The deficit reached 3.2 billion pounds, up from 3.1 billion pounds in the first half of 2014.

• Import Sources: The top five countries accounted for 64% of U.S. imports in the first half of 2015.

  • China: Contributed 30%.
  • India: 11%.
  • Pakistan: 9%.
  • Bangladesh and Vietnam: Each contributed 7.5%.

U.S. Cotton Production Forecast

• 2015 Forecast: Reduced to 13.1 million bales, down 1.4 million bales from July and 3.2 million bales from 2014.
• Planted Area: Estimated at 8.9 million acres, down 100,000 acres from June and 2.1 million from a year ago.
• Harvested Area: Projected at 7.9 million acres, with an abandonment rate of 11%, down from 15% in 2014.
• Yield: Forecast at 795 pounds per harvested acre, down from 838 pounds in 2014.
• Regional Projections:
  • Southwest: 5.7 million bales, down from 6.5 million in 2014. Yield is the lowest in four seasons.
  • Southeast: Nearly 4.2 million bales, the lowest in six seasons. Yield is near the 3-year average.
  • Delta: 2.3 million bales, the lowest since 1983. Area declined to 1.0 million acres, a record.
  • West: 505,000 bales, with a record yield of 1,554 pounds per harvested acre. ELS cotton remains concentrated in the West, with California accounting for over 80% of the ELS crop.

Demand and Stocks

• 2015/16 Demand: Reduced to 13.7 million bales, nearly 1.1 million bales below the previous season's revised estimate.
• Mill Use: Forecast at 3.7 million bales, up 4% from the previous season. Expected to reach the highest level in 5 years due to increased U.S. capacity and low cotton prices.
• Exports: Forecast at 10.0 million bales, down 1.2 million from 2014/15 and the lowest since 2000/01.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to decrease by 600,000 bales to 3.1 million bales.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Estimated at 23%, compared with 25% in 2014/15 and 17% in 2013/14.

2014/15 Supply and Demand Adjustments

• U.S. Exports: Increased by 200,000 bales to 11.2 million bales.
• Stocks: Reduced based on public warehouse data to 3.7 million bales.
• Next Report: NASS will report on cotton stocks outside the BMAS system on September 1, 2015.

International Outlook

• Global Production: Forecast at 109.0 million bales in 2015/16, down 10 million from 2014/15 and 2.5 million from the previous August forecast.
• Production Declines: Mainly due to reduced area and yield in the U.S., China, and India.
• China: Production forecast at 26.0 million bales, down 4 million from 2014. A record yield of 1,562 kg/ha reduces the impact of lower area.
• India: Projected at 29.0 million bales, down 2% from 2014. A normal monsoon partially offsets a 7% reduction in area.
• Global Consumption: Forecast at nearly 114.7 million bales, up 2.5% from the previous month.
• Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Projected at 92%, down from 99% in 2014/15.

Key Trends

• China's Impact: China's reduction in raw cotton imports significantly affects global trade.
• U.S. Share of Global Trade: Expected to decline from 31.5% in 2014/15 to 29% in 2015/16.
• Global Stock Decline: Projected to decrease by 5% from 2014/15's record to 105.2 million bales.
• Major Exporters: Reduced exports due to lower supplies and import demand, with the exception of India, which is expected to expand its exports significantly.

Charts and Data Sources

• Figures:

  • Figure 1: Leading suppliers of U.S. cotton textile and apparel imports.
  • Figure 2: U.S. regional upland cotton production.
  • Figure 3: U.S. cotton crop conditions.
  • Figure 4: Global cotton production and consumption.
  • Figure 5: Share of global cotton ending stocks.

• Data Sources:

  • USDA, Economic Research Service
  • U.S. Census Bureau
  • Farm Services Agency
  • National Agricultural Statistics Service
  • World Agricultural Outlook Board

Contacts and Links

• Leslie Meyer: (202) 694-5307, lmeyer@ers.usda.gov
• Stephen MacDonald: (202) 694-5305, stephenm@ers.usda.gov
• Carolyn Liggon: (202) 694-5056, cvliggon@ers.usda.gov
• Subscription: Available via ERS e-mail notification service
• Data Access:
  • Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables
  • Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery
• Related Websites:
  • WASDE
  • Cotton Topics
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook

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