20150612-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook__2015.6.12_23页_294kb

Summary of the U.S. Wheat Outlook (June 12, 2015)

Core Content

The U.S. Economic Research Service (ERS) released the June 12, 2015, Wheat Outlook report, providing updated projections for U.S. and global wheat supplies, utilization, and prices for the 2015/16 marketing year. The report also includes a review of the 2014/15 year and insights into international wheat production and trade.

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

• Projected 2015/16 production: 1,505 million bushels, up 33 million bushels from May and 127 million bushels from 2014.
• Harvested area: 33.8 million acres, up 1.5 million from last year.
• Yield: 44.5 bushels per acre, up 1.9 from the previous year.
• Hard Red Winter (HRW): Production up 34 million bushels from May, 149 million bushels from 2014, with higher yields offsetting lower planted area.
• Soft Red Winter (SRW): Production down 2 million bushels from May, 42 million bushels from 2014, due to lower yields and planted/harvested areas.
• White Winter Wheat: Production forecast at 204 million bushels, up 1 million from May and 20 million from 2014.
• Desert Durum: Production forecast at 16.9 million bushels, up from 10.6 million bushels in 2014 due to larger harvested area.

U.S. Wheat Supplies and Utilization

• Total 2015/16 supplies: Projected at 2,973.1 million bushels, up 36 million bushels from May and 209 million from 2014/15.
• Total 2015/16 use: Projected at 2,973.1 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from May and 107 million from 2014/15.
• Feed and residual use: Up 15 million bushels to 195 million bushels, driven by larger supplies and lower wheat prices relative to corn.
• Ending stocks: Projected at 814 million bushels, up 21 million from May and 102 million from 2014/15, the largest since 2010/11.
• Season-average farm price: Projected at $4.40 to $5.40 per bushel, down from the May range of $4.50 to $5.50.

International Outlook

• Global wheat production for 2014/15: Projected at 721.6 million tons, up 2.6 million tons from the previous month.
• Russia and Ukraine: Both saw increased production prospects due to favorable growing conditions and rainfall, with Russia's production forecast at 55.0 million tons and Ukraine's at 23.0 million tons.
• Argentina: Production reduced by 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million due to lower planted area and poor incentives for planting.
• Algeria and Tunisia: Production down 0.3 million tons each to 2.0 and 1.0 million tons, respectively, due to heat stress.
• World wheat trade for 2015/16: Projected to increase by 1.5 million tons to 158.2 million tons.
• U.S. exports: Unchanged at 25.5 million tons for 2015/16.

Key Trends and Factors

• U.S. exports for 2014/15: Reduced to 23.0 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from May, due to lower export pace and reduced shipments.
• Russian export tax: A new floating tax introduced in July 2015 is not expected to significantly impact 2015/16 exports unless prices or the ruble exchange rate change dramatically.
• Global feed and residual use: Increased by 2.9 million tons to 139.0 million tons, more than offsetting supply increases.
• World ending stocks: Reduced slightly by 0.9 million tons, with some countries (Russia, Iran, Syria) seeing larger reductions.

Additional Information

• Wheat Chart Gallery will be updated on June 12, 2015, and the next release is scheduled for July 14, 2015.
• The report is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
• The USDA Wheat Baseline (2015-24) provides long-term supply and utilization projections for U.S. wheat.
• Contacts and subscription information are provided for those interested in receiving updates on ERS reports and data.

Summary of Projections

Figures and Data Sources

• All figures are sourced from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board.
• The report includes detailed charts and tables for various wheat classes and global supply and demand estimates.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 U.S. wheat outlook indicates increased production and supplies, supported by improved weather conditions and higher yields in the Central Plains. Despite some challenges like lodging and disease in areas with excessive rainfall, overall production is expected to be strong. Global wheat production and trade are also projected to rise, with Russia and Ukraine leading the increase. The U.S. remains a major exporter, but the floating export tax and lower prices relative to corn may influence trade dynamics.