世界银行-马尔代夫发展动态，2024年5月：缩减和重建缓冲区（英）-2024.4-59页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary

The World Bank's Maldives Development Update highlights that economic growth has markedly slowed, with an estimated 4.0% real GDP growth in 2023, down from the pre-pandemic trend, primarily due to declining tourist spending per visitor despite increased arrivals. Inflation remained elevated at 2.9% in 2023 but contained by government interventions such as blanket subsidies, which exacerbated fiscal vulnerabilities. Fiscal deficits widened to 13.2% of GDP in 2023, driven by high capital spending, subsidies, and interest payments, while public debt surged to 122.9% of GDP, limiting fiscal space. External balances deteriorated, with the current account deficit reaching 23.4% of GDP and foreign exchange reserves falling to insufficient levels for import coverage. The medium-term outlook projects modest growth (4.7% average) supported by tourism, but risks include high debt servicing costs, external financing challenges, and the need for fiscal reforms. The report underscores the urgency for fiscal consolidation, subsidy reforms, and economic diversification to enhance resilience.

Key Findings:
- Growth slowed in 2023, attributed to reduced tourist stay durations and increased guesthouse accommodation.
- Inflation peaked in 2023 but declined due to government price controls and global commodity easing.
- Fiscal deficits remain high, with public debt exceeding 122% of GDP, necessitating fiscal adjustments.
- External vulnerabilities, including widening current account deficits and low reserves, heighten risks from global economic shocks.
Recommendations:
- Implement the announced fiscal reform agenda to reduce subsidies and target cash transfers for vulnerable groups.
- Accelerate structural reforms, such as subsidy realignment and SOE optimization, to improve fiscal sustainability.
- Diversify the economy beyond tourism through investments in other sectors like fisheries and digital infrastructure for long-term stability.