世界银行-马尔代夫发展更新，2025年4月（英）

报告摘要

Growth: GDP growth remained robust at 5.5% in 2024, driven by strong tourism performance (+7.1% y-o-y, tourist arrivals reached 2.05 million). Other sectors like fisheries and manufacturing showed mixed declines.
Inflation: Headline inflation surged in late 2024 to 4.1–4.8% y-o-y, with food inflation at 6.6%, exacerbated by subsidies and price hikes, despite recent support from tourism.
Fiscal Deficits: Fiscal deficit widened to 11.7% of GDP in 2024 y-to-date, due to increased spending on healthcare, salaries, and subsidies, though reforms like GST and tax adjustments aim to boost revenue.
External Debts: Public debt reached 134.2% of GDP, elevated by infrastructure spending. CAD widened to US$3.3 billion, depleting reserves to US$371.2 million (critical shortage), despite a currency swap agreement.
Banking Sector: High exposures to sovereign and SOEs persisted, with credit growth moderating amid tighter foreign currency liquidity and regulatory constraints.

Growth Projections: GDP growth is expected to moderate from 5.7% in 2025–4.7% in 2027, supported by airport expansion but constrained by limited fiscal consolidation and global uncertainties.
Inflation and Deficits: Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.3% in 2025, and fiscal deficits may only slowly narrow to 9.8% of GDP, increasing public debt to 135.7%. High external debt servicing could strain reserves.
Key Risks: Downside risks include global economic slowdown, trade uncertainties, and fiscal vulnerabilities, heightening liquidity risks and potential debt distress.

Priority: Implement fiscal reforms urgently, including phasing out blanket subsidies, introducing targeted cash transfers, improving health sector efficiency, and rationalizing capital spending to enhance budgetary space and address vulnerabilities.
Challenges: Austerity measures could impact household welfare if not mitigated; ensuring sufficient buffers and strengthening market access through prudent financing strategies are critical.

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