2025-05-13-世界银行-马尔代夫发展更新_2025年4月（英）_23页_898kb

Maldives Development Update Summary

Core Content

The Maldives Development Update (MDU) provides an analysis of the Maldivian economy, outlining recent developments, medium-term outlook, and associated risks. It is a collaborative effort by the World Bank and includes data from various government and international sources.

Main Goals

1. Economic Pulse Check: To summarize key economic developments over the past 12 months.
2. Medium-Term Outlook: To analyze the economic outlook based on recent trends.
3. Policy Analysis: Every other edition includes an in-depth look at selected economic and policy issues.

Key Authors and Contributors

• Ruijie Cheng, Erdem Atas, Richard Walker, and Arvind Nair (Economic Policy, South Asia Region)
• Nandini Krishnan, Marta Schoch, Karina Baba, and Tasneem Dudhia for inputs
• Mathew Verghis, David Sislen, Gevorg Sargsyan, and Shabih Ali Mohib for guidance
• Yasindu Amarasinghe and Tracey Ann Plunkett for administrative support
• Ali Naafiz for dissemination efforts

Document Structure

• Preface
• Abbreviations
• Table of Contents
• Executive Summary
• A1. Economic Update
• A2. Outlook and Risks
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• List of Annexes

Abbreviations

Economic Update (A1)

1. Economic Growth and Inflation

• Growth: Real GDP growth remained robust at 5.5% (y-o-y) in 2024, driven by a strong tourism sector (7.1% growth in Q1-Q3).
• Inflation: Headline inflation was subdued in the first ten months of 2024 (0.8% y-o-y), but surged to 4.1% in November and 4.8% in December. Food inflation was particularly high, reaching 6.6% y-o-y in 2024.
• Tourism: Tourist arrivals increased by 8.9% y-o-y to 2.05 million, with an average stay of 7.7 days.

2. Fiscal Deficit

• Fiscal Deficit: The reported fiscal deficit for the first eleven months of 2024 reached MVR 12.7 billion (US$822.4 million or 11.7% of GDP), up from MVR 11.9 billion (US$770.7 million or 11.7% of GDP) in the same period of 2023.
• Expenditure: Total expenditure increased to 41.3% of GDP, while revenue collection rose to 29.6% of GDP.
• Subsidy Reforms: Subsidy reforms were delayed, leading to continued high expenditure on blanket subsidies (43% of which reached non-vulnerable households).

3. Public and External Debt

• Public Debt: Total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt reached US$9.4 billion (134.2% of GDP) in 2024Q4, up from US$8.2 billion (124.2% of GDP) in 2023Q4.
• Domestic Debt: Increased to 76.5% of GDP in 2024Q4, with external and externally guaranteed debt accounting for the remaining 57.7% of GDP.
• Debt Servicing: External debt servicing costs rose to US$424.3 million in 2024, up from US$360.3 million in 2023.

4. Austerity and Household Welfare

• Austerity Impact: If not mitigated, austerity measures could harm household welfare, especially for those in the atolls and primary sectors.
• Poverty: The poverty rate is estimated at 2.2% in 2024, down from 3.9% in 2019. However, without welfare spending, the rate would be higher.

5. FX Reserves

• FX Reserves: Declined to critically low levels (US$371.2 million in September 2024), sufficient to cover only 0.8 months of imports.
• Recovery: Reserves recovered to US$832.1 million in February 2025 due to a US$400 million currency swap agreement with the Reserve Bank of India.

Outlook and Risks (A2)

6. Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth: Projected to moderate to 5.7% in 2025, 5.3% in 2026, and 4.7% in 2027.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 4.3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, before moderating to 2% in 2027.
• Fiscal Deficit: Likely to remain elevated, narrowing slowly from 12.3% of GDP in 2024 to 9.8% in 2027.
• Public Debt: Projected to rise to 135.7% of GDP in 2027.
• External Debt: Servicing costs are expected to increase significantly, reaching US$1 billion in 2026.

7. Risks

• Downside Risks: Heightened global trade uncertainties and a potential global economic slowdown could negatively impact the tourism sector and growth.
• Liquidity and Solvency: Elevated external and fiscal imbalances, along with high debt servicing needs, pose significant liquidity and solvency risks.
• Rating Downgrades: Fitch and Moody's downgrades have constrained access to new financing and increased the cost of external borrowing.
• SDF Limitations: The Sovereign Development Fund (SDF) has a small cash balance (US$65 million in July 2024), insufficient to cover external debt servicing needs.

8. Fiscal and Debt Vulnerabilities

• Fiscal Consolidation: A deep fiscal consolidation and a clear financing strategy are urgently needed to reduce vulnerabilities and ease liquidity pressures.
• Reforms: Key reforms include phasing out blanket subsidies, improving efficiency in the health insurance scheme, reforming SOEs, and reducing capital spending.

Key Information

• Tourism: Remains the backbone of the Maldivian economy, contributing significantly to GDP growth and service exports.
• Inflation: Food inflation is a major concern, with headline inflation rising in late 2024.
• Fiscal Deficit: Continued to increase, with a focus on reducing subsidies and improving revenue mobilization.
• Debt Levels: Public and external debt are at high levels, with a significant portion of debt held by the financial sector.
• FX Reserves: Critically low, with a recovery supported by a currency swap agreement and new FX regulations.
• Poverty and Inequality: Structural inequalities between Malé and the atolls could deepen in the event of economic shocks.
• Policy Recommendations: Emphasize the need for targeted fiscal reforms, better public services, and improved social protection mechanisms.

Conclusion

The MDU highlights the challenges facing the Maldivian economy, including robust growth, rising inflation, high fiscal and external deficits, and critically low FX reserves. It underscores the need for urgent fiscal consolidation and targeted reforms to ensure sustainable economic development and protect household welfare.