2024-10-20-世界银行-马尔代夫发展更新_2024年10月_在动荡时期寻求稳定（英）_44页_7mb

Maldives Development Update Summary

Core Content

The Maldives Development Update (MDU) provides an overview of the country's economic performance and outlines key policy priorities to address climate and development challenges. It is a publication by the World Bank aimed at policymakers, analysts, and professionals in the business and financial sectors.

Main Goals

1. Economic Update: Assess the state of the Maldivian economy and recent developments.
2. Outlook and Risks: Forecast economic performance and identify potential risks.
3. Policy Priorities: Address climate and development challenges through targeted recommendations.

Key Economic Developments

• Growth: Economic growth picked up in early 2024, with real GDP growth reaching 9.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2024Q1, driven by increased tourist arrivals.
• Tourism: Tourist arrivals increased by 15.3% in 2024Q1, contributing to growth in transportation, communication, and domestic trade.
• Inflation: Headline inflation eased to 0.5% in 2024H1, but food inflation remained high at 6.7% y-o-y.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit narrowed in cash terms to 0.6% of GDP in 2024Q1, but expenditure arrears increased.
• Public Debt: Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt reached US$8.2 billion or 115.7% of GDP in 2024Q1, up from 109.7% in 2023Q1.
• Foreign Exchange (FX) Reserves: FX reserves declined sharply to US$443.9 million at end-August 2024, covering only 1 month of imports, down from 1.4 months at end-2023.
• Debt Servicing: Debt service costs are expected to rise significantly, from US$408.3 million in 2024 to US$1.07 billion in 2026, due to the repayment of the US$500 million Sukuk and a US$100 million private bond in 2026.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth Forecast: Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.6% in 2026, slightly below April 2024 forecasts, due to delays in infrastructure projects, fiscal adjustments, and reduced spending per tourist.
• Inflation Forecast: Inflation is projected to rise to 7.8% in 2025, which could increase poverty unless targeted cash transfers are introduced.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 6.1% of GDP in 2026, but the process is contingent on reform implementation.
• Current Account Deficit (CAD): The CAD is expected to narrow to 16% of GDP in 2024 from 21.2% in 2023, but external debt servicing pressures will continue.
• Risks: Downside risks are significant due to heightened external and fiscal vulnerabilities, limited buffers, and recent downgrades by credit rating agencies. The Sovereign Development Fund (SDF) has only US$65 million available, which is insufficient to cover external debt servicing needs.

Climate and Development Challenges

• Sea-Level Rise (SLR): SLR and related flooding pose a major threat to the Maldives, with potential asset damage and GDP loss under high-emission scenarios.
• Economic Impact: SLR could reduce GDP by up to 11 percentage points by 2050 without adaptation. With sustained investments, this could be reduced to less than 6 percentage points.
• Coral Reefs: Coral reefs are critical for ecosystem services, including sand production and flood protection, valued at US$442 million annually. They could be lost if global temperatures exceed 2°C.
• Fisheries: Fish catch potential is expected to decline by almost 100% by the end of the century under a high-emission scenario, threatening the fisheries sector's revenue.
• Tourism Sector: The tourism sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, with 90% of resorts facing moderate to severe beach erosion and 60% reporting infrastructure damage.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Reforms: Implement targeted cash transfers to offset the impact of subsidy removal, improve efficiency in the health insurance scheme (Aasandha), and reduce capital spending.
• Climate Finance: Explore new concessional financing instruments, carbon markets, and climate-related risk management products to support climate adaptation and mitigation.
• Infrastructure and Ecosystems: Develop climate-resilient and green infrastructure for tourism and fisheries, and integrate nature-based solutions (NbS) with engineered measures for coastal protection.
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): Expand PPPs to mobilize green finance and support sustainable development.
• Social Protection: Enhance social protection programs and skills development to build resilience against climate impacts and support sustainable growth.

Key Challenges

• Fiscal and External Vulnerabilities: High public debt, limited FX reserves, and rising debt service costs pose significant risks to macroeconomic stability.
• Interagency Coordination: Inadequate coordination between agencies hampers the implementation of climate and development policies.
• Climate Adaptation: The need for strategic investment in climate adaptation is critical to reduce the impact of SLR and flooding, with estimated costs between US$2 billion and US$4 billion for coastal protection alone.

Data Sources

The report is based on data from the World Bank, IMF, Ministry of Finance, Maldives Monetary Authority, Maldives Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Tourism, and press reports.

Conclusion

The MDU highlights the urgent need for fiscal consolidation, climate adaptation, and institutional reforms to ensure the long-term sustainability and resilience of the Maldivian economy. It underscores the importance of integrating climate considerations into development strategies and emphasizes the need for a coordinated and adaptive policy framework.