20230727-华创证券-策略周聚焦_13年弱补库_PPI下行与当前的异同_18页_1mb

Summary of Strategy Weekly Report: Weak Build-up in 2013-14 vs. Current Situation

This report analyzes the similarities and differences between the weak inventory build-up cycle in 2013-14 and the current market environment. During 2013-14, the weak build-up was primarily driven by demand stagnation and severe overcapacity, leading to prolonged deflation as PPI declined from -16% to -12% over one year, with industrial output inventory rising minimally. Key factors included excess capacity from the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus" leading to overinvestment in infrastructure and manufacturing, coupled with slow demand due to policy adjustments and global slowdown.

In contrast, while current conditions share weak demand, supply-side oversupply is less pronounced. Specifically, the construction and infrastructure sector faces supply constraints, whereas manufacturing has seen significant capacity expansion in recent years, potentially making supply issues easier to resolve. Demand weaknesses persist across many industries, with only a few manufacturing sectors, like electrical machinery, showing better performance.

The core conclusions are:

• 2013-14 weak build-up stemmed from demand issues and capacity excess.
• Inventory accumulation was weaker in key industries like real resources and construction due to low demand.
• PPI was dragged down by construction and manufacturing sectors, but consumer goods helped partially offset declines.
• Supply overcapacity arose from high investment in sectors such as equipment and energy during 2009-12.
• Demand was heavily weighed by construction and consumer sectors during the cycle.

Overall, current conditions are less severe on the supply side but share demand challenges, which could lead to risks such as economic slowdown in Asia or unforeseen policy outcomes.