20140623-大华银行-Regional_Morning_Notes_31页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 23 June 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on market trends and stock recommendations across several Asian markets, including Malaysia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Singapore. It includes insights on key companies, sector performance, and market indices.

Main Points by Region

Malaysia

Malaysian Resources Corporation (MRC)
- Legal battle with PKNS has concluded.
- The EDL decision is expected next and could influence the company's performance.
- Current price: RM1.63, target price: RM2.05.
- Recommendation: BUY.

China

Consumer Sector
- Foreign brands are still limited by price and exposure, especially in lower-tier cities.
- Imported UHT milk prices fell by 10.2% from April, now 23% cheaper than domestic premium UHT milk but still 39% more expensive than domestic basic UHT milk.
- Increased number of foreign brands available online, including Conaprole, Dairystar, and Fred & Chloe.
- Government has imposed stricter import regulations, requiring registration by May 1, 2014.
- Domestic processors, such as Mengniu, are responding with promotions to counter foreign competition.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (386 HK)
- The Fuling project is a significant breakthrough in China's shale gas production.
- Targets 5b-10b cum production by 2015-17, with output in 2014-15 at 1b-3.2b cum.
- All-in cost: Rmb1.82/cum, ASP: Rmb2.78/cum, resulting in an EBIT of Rmb1.1/cum.
- Recommendation: BUY, target price increased to HK$8.40.

Hong Kong

Property Sector
- Strong presales results over the weekend, though not as robust as three weeks prior.
- No major changes in the sector outlook.

Indonesia

Coal Sector
- A defensive yet attractive approach to the coal sector is through logistics companies.
- Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati (MBSS IJ) is trading at 4.7x 2015F PE, below its 3-year average.

Singapore

Halcyon Agri Corp (HACL SP)
- Sees opportunity in the bear rubber market through proposed acquisition of Lee Rubber's Indonesian factories.
- Current price: S$0.92, target: S$1.15.
- Recommendation: BUY.
M1 (M1 SP)
- Continued expansion in the post-paid mobile market.
- Current price: S$3.54, target: S$4.05.
- Recommendation: BUY.

Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BGH TB)
- Considered a must-own share, with target price raised to Bt20.40.
- Recommendation: BUY.

Key Market Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	16947.1	0.2	1.0	2.1	2.2
S&P 500	1962.9	0.2	1.4	3.3	6.2
FTSE 100	6825.2	0.3	0.7	0.1	1.1
AS30	5401.6	-0.8	0.3	-1.3	0.9
CSI 300	2136.7	0.5	-1.8	-0.5	-8.3
FSSTI	3258.8	-0.3	-1.0	-0.6	2.9
HSCEI	10395.5	0.4	-1.2	2.7	-3.9
HSI	23194.1	0.1	-0.5	1.0	-0.5
JCI	4847.7	-0.3	-1.6	-2.5	13.4
KLCI	1885.7	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.0
KOSPI	1968.1	-1.2	-1.1	-2.4	-2.2
Nikkei 225	15349.4	-0.1	1.7	6.1	-5.8
SET	1467.3	0.4	0.8	5.0	13.0
TWSE	9273.8	-0.5	0.8	2.9	7.7
BDI	904	0.2	-0.2	-6.2	-60.3
CPO	2483	0.5	3.3	-4.5	-3.5
Nymex Crude	107	0.3	0.2	2.7	8.8

Top Picks

Company	Stock Code	Current Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Potential Upside (%)
CNBM	3323 HK	6.81	9.82	44.2
ICBC	1398 HK	4.93	6.15	24.7
Bank Mandiri	BMRI J	9,800.00	10,800.00	10.2
Gamuda	GAM MK	4.53	5.60	23.6
DBS	DBS SP	16.91	22.60	33.6
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	1.32	1.55	17.9
Bangkok Bank	BBL TB	193.50	237.00	22.5
PTT	PTT TB	298.00	360.00	20.8

Key Assumptions

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F
GDP (yoy)	7.8	6.9	-
Brent (US$/bbl)	110	110	-
Aluminium (US$/mt)	1,886	1,713	1,650
Copper (US$/mt)	7,354	6,850	6,750
Gold (US$/ounce)	1,407	1,200	1,300
Iron Ore (US$/mt)	135	120	110
CPO (US$/mt)	736	858	858
BDI	1,219	1,500	1,800

Key Financial Highlights (China Petroleum & Chemical Corp)

Profit & Loss

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F	2016F
Net turnover	2,880,311	3,057,009	3,173,597	3,375,688
EBITDA	178,050	198,014	221,200	225,214
EBIT	96,785	113,321	128,293	123,911
Net profit (rep./act.)	66,132	75,404	87,444	85,264
Net profit (adj.)	66,132	75,404	87,444	85,264

Balance Sheet

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F	2016F
Fixed assets	830,225	891,667	943,930	986,984
Cash/ST investment	15,046	110,883	92,352	76,554
Total assets	1,382,916	1,563,884	1,613,105	1,669,254
Shareholders’ equity	568,804	757,473	825,836	887,242

Cash Flow

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F	2016F
Operating	151,893	164,786	184,652	191,334
Pre-tax profit	95,052	106,391	123,378	117,862
Net profit	66,132	75,404	87,444	85,264

Key Metrics

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F	2016F
EBITDA margin	6.2	6.5	7.0	6.7
Pre-tax margin	3.3	3.5	3.9	3.6
Net margin	2.3	2.5	2.8	2.5
ROA	5.0	5.1	5.5	5.3
ROE	12.2	11.4	11.0	10.4

Analysts Contact

Renee Tai: +852 2826 1324 | renee.tai@uobkayhian.com.hk
Dongbi Cui: +862154047225ext809 | dongbi@uobkayhian.com
Herbert Chan: +852 2826 1330 | herbert.chan@uobkayhian.com.hk
Yan Shi: +8621 5404 7225 ext 804 | yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
Terry Zhou: +8621 5404 7225 ext 819 | Terryzhou@uobkayhian.com

Key Stock Recommendations

China Mengniu (2319 HK)
- Current Price: HK$35.65
- Target Price: HK$42.70
- 2014F PE: 22.4
- Recommendation: BUY
- Reason: Strong position in the premium dairy market, improved operational efficiency with new CFO, and good margin expansion.
- Risks: Slower sales momentum, higher input costs, and food safety concerns.
L’Occilane (973 HK)
- Current Price: HK$17.26
- Target Price: HK$15.35
- 2014F PE: 22.4
- Recommendation: SELL
Uni-President China (220 HK)
- Current Price: HK$5.70
- Target Price: HK$3.98
- 2014F PE: 29.0
- Recommendation: SELL

Market Outlook

Consumer Staples: OVERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Consumer Discretionaries: MARKET WEIGHT (Maintained)
Shale Gas Outlook: Sinopec's Fuling project is a breakthrough, with potential for stable production and growth. The company is expected to benefit from the shale gas development and may see more investment in the area.
M&A Opportunities: Several companies are exploring M&A to expand their market presence, including Halcyon Agri Corp's proposed acquisition of Lee Rubber's Indonesian factories.

Summary

The document highlights key developments in the Chinese and regional markets, focusing on the dairy and energy sectors. It suggests that while foreign brands are gaining traction in the dairy market, particularly through e-commerce, domestic players like Mengniu are still the top picks due to their strong market position and strategic moves. In the energy sector, Sinopec's Fuling project is a significant growth driver, and the company is recommended as a BUY with a lifted target price. The document also outlines market indices, top picks, and key financial metrics for the listed companies, providing a detailed view of market dynamics and investment opportunities.

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