2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Georgia_Request_for_a_Stand_94页_1mb

Summary of Georgia's Stand-By Arrangement Request and Related Documents

Core Content

This document outlines Georgia's request for a three-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amounting to SDR 100 million (67 percent of quota), aimed at addressing the external financing needs in 2014. The SBA is part of a broader strategy to rebuild macroeconomic stability, reduce vulnerabilities, and support sustainable and inclusive growth in line with Georgia's Georgia 2020 socio-economic development strategy.

Main Objectives of the Program

• Boost confidence by providing a prudent and sustainable macroeconomic framework.
• Catalyze official financial support and investment.
• Provide modest external financing to address the balance of payments need.
• Reduce macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including the current account deficit and external debt.
• Support the government's objective of sustainable and inclusive growth.

Key Policies

A. Fiscal Policy

• 2014: Fiscal policy will provide a measured stimulus to support domestic demand while safeguarding external stability.
• 2015 onwards: The fiscal deficit will be reduced to keep public debt low and create space for countercyclical measures.
• Consolidation: Will rely on revenue broadening, expenditure containment, and protection of pro-poor spending and public investment.

B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) will aim for price stability through improved inflation targeting.
• The exchange rate will be allowed to adjust if balance of payments pressures intensify.
• Nominal effective exchange rate has strengthened, possibly reducing future inflationary pressures.

C. Financial Sector Policies

• Continued strengthening of the financial sector, supported by the FSAP mission recommendations.
• Containment of quasi-fiscal risks.
• Improvement in tax administration and financial sector stability.

D. Structural Reforms

• The program complements structural reforms aimed at:
  • Enhancing private sector competitiveness (e.g., improving bankruptcy legislation, intellectual property rights, infrastructure).
  • Strengthening human capital development (e.g., vocational training, public health care, education).
  • Improving access to finance (e.g., developing capital markets, improving agricultural investment).

Key Challenges and Risks

• High current account deficit and net external liabilities at around 100 percent of GDP.
• Uncertainty in partner countries, especially Russia and Ukraine, which have worsened the balance of payments outlook.
• Potential spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine crisis could impact trade balance, remittances, and FDI.
• Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union may reduce Georgia's exports to Armenia.
• Regional tensions could affect market confidence and foreign exchange reserves.

Recent Economic Developments

• GDP growth fell to 3 percent in 2013 due to political uncertainty and revenue shortfalls.
• Fiscal policy became procyclical in 2013, leading to increased macroeconomic volatility.
• Inflation turned positive in late 2013, reaching 2.5 percent, with potential to rise to 5 percent by year-end.
• Credit growth has recovered to 18 percent y/y in March 2014, driven by lari-denominated household loans.
• Exports to Russia increased significantly after the trade embargo was lifted, and tourism remains a key component of the economy.

Outlook and Risks

• 2014 growth is expected to reach 5 percent, largely due to the base effect from 2013.
• Medium-term growth is projected to average 5 percent, in line with potential growth estimates.
• Near- and medium-term risks are mainly downward, including:
  • Escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions.
  • Delays in structural reforms, especially those related to the DCFTA.
  • Uncertainty in the domestic political environment before the June 2014 local elections.

Document Structure

Sections Covered

• Background and Performance Under the Previous Program
• Recent Economic Developments
• Outlook and Risks
• Program Objectives and Policies
• Program Modalities
• Staff Appraisal

Boxes

1. The Georgia 2020 Strategy
2. EU-Georgia Association Agreement
3. Potential Spillovers from Developments in Ukraine and Russia
4. Restoring Georgia's External Viability
5. Risk Assessment Matrix

Figures

1. Macroeconomic Developments
2. Fiscal Developments, 2009-14
3. Reserves and Exchange Rates, 2012-14
4. External Sector
5. Monetary Indicators, 2012-14
6. Financial Sector Developments

Tables

1. Macroeconomic Framework, 2012-19
   2a. General Government Operations, 2012-19
   2b. Quarterly General Government Expenditures and Balance
2. Summary Balance of Payments, 2012-19
3. Monetary Survey, 2012-14
4. Accounts of the National Bank of Georgia, 2012-14
5. External Vulnerability Indicators, 2012-19
6. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2012-19
7. External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2012-19
8. Schedule of Prospective Reviews and Available Purchases

Annex and Appendix

• Annex I: Debt Sustainability Analysis
• Appendix I: Letter of Intent
• Attachment I: Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU)

Conclusion

The SBA is designed to address external imbalances, fiscal vulnerabilities, and growth challenges. It supports the Georgia 2020 Strategy and complements EU integration efforts, including the DCFTA. The program emphasizes fiscal discipline, monetary stability, and structural reforms to ensure long-term economic resilience and inclusive growth.