2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Georgia_Ninth_Review_Under_the_Stand_44页_922kb

Summary of Georgia's Ninth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver

Core Content

This document outlines the Ninth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Georgia, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in May 2011. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, Statement by the Executive Director, and Letter of Intent, which were released in conjunction with the review. The report assesses Georgia's economic developments, program performance, and future policy directions, particularly in the context of fiscal and monetary adjustments, external vulnerabilities, and the potential for a successor Fund arrangement.

Main Points

1. Program Performance

• The SBA program objectives were largely achieved by the end of March 2011.
• Performance Criteria (PCs) were met for most indicators, except the ceiling on general government expenditure.
• The fiscal deficit was revised downward to 3.6% of GDP (from 4.3%) due to improved revenue performance and a strategic increase in social spending.
• The Non-Observance of Performance Criterion (NOPC) was not observed, and the waiver request was supported by the staff, as the authorities have committed to a stronger fiscal adjustment than previously expected.

2. Economic Developments

• Real GDP growth for 2011 was projected at 5.5%, supported by strong first-quarter economic indicators.
• Inflation was revised upward to 8.5% by year-end due to rising food and fuel prices, but core inflation remained subdued at 1.5% in April.
• The Eurobond issuance in April 2011 (500 million USD) helped reduce the external debt rollover hump in 2013 by redeeming $435 million of the 2013 Eurobond.
• Money growth has decelerated as expected, while credit growth remains healthy.
• NPLs (Non-Performing Loans) declined to 5% (IMF definition), reflecting improved banking conditions.

3. Exchange Rate Regime

• Georgia's exchange rate regime is classified as floating.
• The lari appreciated by 7.6% against the dollar in the first four months of 2011, but depreciation pressures emerged in May due to large-scale private foreign exchange purchases.
• The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) intervened in the foreign exchange market to manage volatility, with net international reserves restored to pre-crisis levels.

4. Macroeconomic Outlook for 2011

• The real GDP growth projection remains unchanged at 5.5%.
• Inflation is expected to stabilize and decelerate in the second half of the year due to food and fuel prices stabilizing.
• The current account deficit is projected to widen to 10.8% of GDP in 2011 but is expected to decline thereafter.
• External debt servicing remains a concern, especially as the 2013 rollover hump approaches.

5. Remaining Challenges

• A large current account deficit remains a vulnerability.
• A significant fiscal adjustment is still required to bring the primary fiscal deficit below the debt stabilizing level.
• Unemployment is high, and rising food and fuel prices have eroded real incomes, particularly for the most vulnerable.
• The banking sector has recovered from the financial crisis but requires continued monitoring for new risks.

6. Medium-Term Policy Framework

• The authorities are developing a medium-term policy framework to address macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including restoring a viable external position and improving social safety nets.
• The framework also aims to strengthen private sector investment in the tradable sector and contain financial sector risks.

7. Successor Fund Arrangement

• The authorities expressed interest in a successor Fund arrangement to support medium-term challenges and provide a safety net against possible shocks.
• It is expected to be precautionary, and the exact modalities will be discussed in the coming weeks.

Key Information

• SDR Access: SDR 747.1 million (497.1% of quota), with SDR 577.1 million disbursed.
• Program Duration: The SBA expires on June 14, 2011.
• Fiscal Adjustments: The 2011 fiscal deficit is projected at 3.6% of GDP, with increased social spending aimed at mitigating the impact of rising food and fuel prices.
• Monetary Policy: The monetary stance is appropriate, and the central bank is prepared to tighten policy if inflation becomes more persistent.
• Exchange Rate Policy: The NBG aims to increase Net International Reserves (NIR) through foreign exchange market interventions, while maintaining a flexible exchange rate.
• Social Spending: Includes food and electricity vouchers, and the basic pension is set to increase from GEL80 to GEL100 in September 2011.
• Pension Reform: The authorities are considering a contributory pension system, but it is advised to be carefully assessed due to potential risks and political considerations.

Conclusion

Georgia has made significant progress in stabilizing its economy and meeting most of the SBA performance criteria. The country is in a relatively strong position to exit the program, with improved fiscal and monetary conditions. However, challenges such as the current account deficit and the need for further fiscal adjustment remain. The authorities are working on a medium-term policy framework to address these issues, and the possibility of a successor Fund arrangement is being explored to ensure continued economic stability and resilience.