2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_Request_for_a_Stand_94页_1mb

Summary of Tunisia: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Tunisian authorities' request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), following the economic and political upheaval after the 2011 revolution. It includes a staff report, a press release, and a statement by the Executive Director, all detailing the economic context, the program priorities, and the modality of the SBA.

Main Objectives

The SBA aims to support Tunisia's economic recovery and macroeconomic stability amid a challenging international environment and ongoing political transition. The program is designed to:

• Stabilize the economy and restore fiscal and external buffers.
• Lay the foundation for growth by addressing structural vulnerabilities.
• Protect the most vulnerable through improved social safety nets.

Key Economic and Political Context

• Post-revolution economic impact: After the 2011 revolution, Tunisia experienced a sharp economic decline, with real GDP contracting by 2% in 2011, FDI and tourism receipts falling by over 30%, and unemployment reaching record levels.
• Fiscal and monetary response: Authorities implemented expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, including higher wages and subsidies, lower policy rates, and relaxed regulatory forbearance.
• Current account deficit: Increased to 8.1% of GDP in 2012, driven by falling European demand and rising imports (except food), while tourism and remittances helped offset the decline.
• Reserve levels: Reserves increased to $8.6 billion in 2012, equivalent to 3.8 months of imports, but still below 2010 levels.
• Political transition: Tunisia has made progress in its political transition, with two coalition governments since the fall of Ben Ali, and a draft constitution expected to be approved by the Constituent Assembly in July 2013.
• Social and economic disparities: Persistent high youth unemployment (averaging 30% in 2010), regional inequalities, and widespread disparities remain major challenges.

Program Priorities

The program, established in close cooperation with the World Bank, focuses on:

A. Macroeconomic Framework

• Growth: Targeted at 4% in 2013, with industrial production recovering and tourism continuing to rebound.
• Inflation: Expected to peak above 6.5% in 2013, but core inflation will remain stable around 4.5%.
• Current account deficit: Projected to narrow to 7.5% of GDP in 2013, and stabilize at 5% by 2015.
• Reserve coverage: Expected to remain above three months of imports throughout the program, with 2013 import coverage maintained at 2012 levels.

B. Short-Term Goals: Restoring Fiscal and External Buffers

• Fiscal deficit: Expected to be 7.3% of GDP in 2013, close to the budget target.
• Structural fiscal balance: Remains around 5% of GDP, with improved spending composition.
• Financing sources: Includes domestic bond issuance, external financing, and privatization.
• Banking recapitalization: A key component, financed through non-negotiable bonds, and contributing to the deficit.

C. Laying the Foundations for Supporting Growth

• Banking sector reform: Addressing critical vulnerabilities from years of directed lending, weak supervision, and substandard norms.
• Investment climate: Improving through tax and investment regime reforms.
• Exchange rate flexibility: To preserve reserves and mitigate external shocks.
• Structural reforms: Aimed at promoting private-sector development, reducing regional disparities, and lowering state intervention.

D. Protecting the Most Vulnerable

• Social safety nets: Strengthened to support the most vulnerable populations.
• Systematic assessment: Of the social impact of reforms.
• Public spending composition: Improved to reduce income disparities and support social cohesion.

SBA Request and Modality

• SDR amount requested: 1.15 billion (equivalent to 400% of quota, or about $1.75 billion).
• Disbursement flexibility: 34% of quota is available upon approval.
• Program duration: Two years, with disbursements timed to provide buffers against external shocks.

Risks

• External risks: Deterioration in the international economic environment, security concerns, and delays in external financing.
• Political risks: Escalation of domestic tensions, uncertainty around elections, and setbacks in the political transition.
• Implementation risks: Delayed reforms and resistance from vested interests could increase social tensions and impede growth.
• Quarterly reviews: Will allow for early remedial actions if slippages occur.

Staff Appraisal and Support

• Consensus reached: Between the IMF staff and Tunisian authorities on the program objectives and modalities.
• IMF support: Includes fiscal and monetary policy guidance, exchange rate flexibility, and external financing.
• IMF role: To monitor progress and provide flexibility in the face of uncertainty and external shocks.

Conclusion

The SBA is designed to support Tunisia's recovery and stabilize its economy while laying the groundwork for sustainable growth and social cohesion. The program emphasizes fiscal discipline, monetary stability, and structural reforms, all underpinned by external financing and IMF support. The success of the program depends on timely implementation, political stability, and continued international support.