2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Georgia_Request_for_a_Stand_89页_1mb

Georgia: Stand-By Arrangement and Standby Credit Facility Summary

Core Content

This document outlines Georgia's request for a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Standby Credit Facility (SCF) under the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The request is framed as precautionary, aimed at supporting the completion of the post-crisis macroeconomic adjustment process, ensuring fiscal sustainability, and maintaining market confidence. The program is intended to provide access to IMF resources in the event of downside risks or a worsening external environment.

Main Objectives

• Support the completion of the fiscal and external adjustment process.
• Strengthen market confidence.
• Provide precautionary access to Fund resources to cover potential balance of payments gaps.
• Maintain fiscal sustainability and promote long-term economic growth.

Key Information

1. Economic Performance (2011)

• Real GDP growth reached nearly 7% in 2011, exceeding initial expectations.
• Inflation dropped sharply to single digits, with CPI inflation at -2.1% in February 2012.
• Public debt fell to 34% of GDP, down from previous levels.
• International reserves increased to $2.8 billion, equivalent to 4.1 months of imports.
• The current account deficit widened to 12.7% of GDP in 2011, but was partially offset by net private inflows.

2. Fiscal Policy (2012-14)

• The general government deficit is expected to decline from 3.5% of GDP in 2012 to 3.0% in 2013.
• Public debt is projected to decrease from 34% of GDP in 2011 to 31% in 2014, and remain on a downward path.
• Fiscal consolidation will focus on expenditure containment, particularly in the capital budget and non-pension current spending.
• The Pension System will undergo a step adjustment in old-age pensions, with limited increases to contain fiscal costs.

3. Exchange Rate and Reserve Management

• Exchange rate flexibility is seen as a critical tool for external adjustment.
• The lari/USD exchange rate remained in a narrow range (1.64–1.69) due to central bank interventions.
• International reserves are expected to remain above $2.5 billion throughout the program period.
• The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) will continue to target inflation and build reserves ahead of future Fund repayments.

4. Monetary Policy

• The NBG is gradually transitioning to an inflation targeting (lite) regime with a medium-term inflation target of 6%.
• Monetary policy rates have been reduced from 8% in June 2011 to 6.5% in January 2012.
• Money market rates and T-bill rates have declined, but lari deposit and lending rates have increased, reflecting dollarization constraints.

5. Financial Sector

• The banking sector has recovered well from the 2009 crisis.
• Deposit and loan dollarization is declining steadily, indicating a shift toward local currency use.
• The central bank has reduced reserve requirements on long-term borrowing to promote long-term funding.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) declined to 4.6% by end-2011.

6. Structural Reforms and Sector Policies

• The Partnership Fund (PF) was established to support private investment through public minority equity participation and debt financing.
• The PF was capitalized by transferring 24% equity in Georgian Railway and Georgian Oil and Gas Company.
• The PF's operations are non-guaranteed, and it is subject to reporting and transparency requirements.
• The program includes sector-specific policies to encourage private investment, education and training reforms, and improve labor market skills to reduce unemployment and poverty.

7. External Vulnerabilities and Risks

• The external environment remains unstable, with large external debt repayments (mostly to the Fund).
• A downside scenario is considered, where a balance of payments gap of around $800 million could emerge between 2012 and 2014 due to lower exports and remittances and weaker private financing.
• In such a scenario, exchange rate flexibility and blending adjustment with financing would be necessary.
• The debt sustainability analysis indicates that even under standard shocks, external debt would not exceed 60% of GDP over the medium term.

8. Political and Institutional Context

• Parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 2012, followed by a presidential election in 2013.
• The Economic Liberty Act, adopted in July 2011, reduces fiscal constraints by allowing the government to introduce or raise taxes without a referendum for up to three years.
• The Act also sets limits on public spending (30% of GDP) and budget deficit (3% of GDP), with mechanisms to address exceeding thresholds.

9. Market and Institutional Recognition

• Rating agencies (Fitch, Standard & Poor's) upgraded Georgia's sovereign rating to BB- in late 2011.
• Eurobond spreads narrowed to 440 basis points over U.S. Treasuries in March 2012.
• Georgia improved its rankings in the World Bank's "doing business" and Transparency International's "corruption perception index".

Program Structure

• The program includes technical memoranda, letters of intent, and memoranda of economic and financial policies.
• The staff report and supplement provide the basis for the Executive Board's discussion.
• The statement by the Executive Director reflects the IMF's position on the request.
• The program is expected to be reviewed in 2014, with a focus on fiscal sustainability, external adjustment, and monetary stability.

Conclusion

The IMF staff appraisal indicates that Georgia's economic fundamentals have improved significantly, and the program is designed to ensure continued adjustment and stability. The precautionary access to Fund resources is intended to provide support in case of external shocks, while the fiscal and structural policies aim to reduce unemployment, improve the business environment, and enhance public financial management.