亚开行-亚洲债券监测-2023年9月（英）-58页_3mb

Summary of ASIA BOND MONITOR September 2023

Regional Financial Conditions

• Monetary Policy: Most regional central banks paused interest rate hikes, as inflation moderated and concerns grew about slowing economic growth. The Federal Reserve's potential rate pause boosted investor sentiment.
• Exchange Rates & Currencies: Regional currencies depreciated against the US dollar, except for the Chinese yuan, which weakened amid concerns over China's economic outlook.
• Equity Markets: Regional equity markets showed mixed results, with net foreign portfolio outflows driven by concerns about the PRC and rising risk aversion post-US credit downgrades.
• Risk Outlook: Although inflation moderated, vulnerabilities remain, including corporate bond defaults in the PRC and Vietnam, limited financial sector resilience in the Lao PDR, and ongoing sustainability challenges.
• Global Shocks: Currency pass-through effects from US monetary policy contributed to inflationary pressures, and regional public and private borrowers face challenges from higher interest rates.

Local Currency Bond Markets

• Overall Growth: Emerging East Asia's LCY bond market grew by 2.0% q-o-q to USD23.1 trillion, with government bonds at 62.0% of the total.
• Q2 2023 Developments: Bond supply rebounded after a contraction in Q1, with corporate and government bonds showing moderate expansion. The PRC was the largest issuer, accounting for 75.6% of regional corporate bond issuance.
• Maturity & Investor Profile: Medium-long-term bonds dominated (53.2% of Treasury bonds), and domestic investors held 88.9% of bonds. Banks in China were the largest holders.
• Country-Specific Highlights:
  • PRC: Outdated interest rate cuts and property support measures lowered yields but faced challenges from real estate defaults.
  • Viet Nam: Continued monetary easing (including 50 bps cuts) supported lower yields but corporate bond markets faced early redemption pressures.
  • Thailand: Increased yields due to tighter monetary policy and political risks overshadowed market growth.

Sustainable Bond Market

• Market Growth: ASEAN+3 sustainable bond outstanding reached USD694.4 billion, growing 5.1% q-o-q (aligned with global trends).
• Key Trends: Green bonds were the dominant segment (64.3%), but sustainability-linked and social bonds gained traction. Short-term financing (75.6% avg maturity) dominated, compared to the EU-20's 9.1 years.
• Challenges & Opportunities: Blended finance is being explored to attract private capital, but the market requires longer tenors to mobilize local currency funding.

Policy & Regulatory Updates

• PRC: Announced extended support for real estate firms and raised macroprudential parameters to boost liquidity.
• Hong Kong: Maintained the countercyclical buffer at 1.0% amid global uncertainty.
• Indonesia: Reined in government bond issuance due to budget surplus.
• Others (Malaysia, Philippines, etc.): Central banks intervened forex markets, introduced digital transparency for SMEs, eased foreign exchange regulations, and supported liquidity management.

Concluding Notes

The regional bond market demonstrated resilience amid normalized global monetary conditions. While growth and policy support drove investor confidence, vulnerabilities persist, particularly in corporate sectors and sustainability financing. Highlighted by green bond advancements and blended finance initiatives, sustainable projects remain pivotal for regional economic integration.