2023年亚洲债券监测报告（英）-58页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of ASIA BOND MONITOR September 2023

Overview

The Asia Bond Monitor provides an update on emerging East Asian local currency bond markets, covering 11 economies including the 10 ASEAN members, China, Hong Kong, China, and Korea. It examines developments from June to August 2023, including financial conditions, monetary policy, bond markets, sustainable bonds, and regulatory changes.

Key Developments

Regional Financial Conditions

Financial conditions marginally improved due to sound economic fundamentals and waning monetary tightening cycles in the region.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) experienced a dimmed economic outlook, leading to equity market losses and net foreign portfolio outflows, especially in August.
Regional currencies slightly weakened against the US dollar, with the Lao kip experiencing the largest depreciation of 8.5%.

Local Currency Bond Markets

Total LCY bonds outstanding in the region reached $23.1 trillion at the end of June 2023, growing by 2.0% quarter-on-quarter.
Government bonds (62% of the market) grew at a slower pace due to reduced issuance, while corporate bonds rebounded from contractions earlier in the year.
The PRC remains the largest market by size, accounting for 79.2% of regional LCY bonds outstanding.
Corporate bond defaults increased, particularly in the real estate sector, with companies like Sino-Ocean and Country Garden Holdings experiencing delays in bond repayments.

Sustainable Bonds

ASEAN+3 sustainable bonds outstanding reached $694.4 billion in June 2023, growing 5.1% quarter-on-quarter and accounting for 1.9% of the region’s total bond market.
Average maturity for sustainable bonds is shorter (4.8 years vs. 9.1 years in EU-20), limiting long-term financing potential.
Social bonds saw significant growth, with $16.5 billion issued in Q2 2023, driven by Korea and Japan.

Policy and Regulatory Updates

People’s Republic of China: The central bank cut key policy rates multiple times to support real estate and stimulate growth.
Hong Kong, China: The HKMA maintained the countercyclical buffer to address global economic uncertainties.
Thailand: Plans to ease foreign exchange regulations took effect in Q3 2023, doubling the threshold for overseas investment in equities.

Risks and Outlook

Higher interest rates challenge borrowers with vulnerable balance sheets and governance.
The PRC’s dimmed economic outlook and rising risk premiums create uncertainty, though inflation has eased.
Corporate bond defaults in Vietnam, Cambodia, and less measurable risks in Thailand compound vulnerabilities.
Innovative policies like blended finance aim to mobilize private capital for sustainable projects in emerging economies.

Regulatory Developments

Vietnam introduced new circulars allowing debt rescheduling for businesses and facilitating bond repurchases, aiming to stabilize corporate bond markets.
India reduced its debt issuance plan amid surplus revenue and better-than-expected economic growth.
Korea announced economic policy directions for the second half of 2023, focusing on enhancing exports and addressing climate challenges.

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