CBRE-2018新加坡房地产市场展望（英文版）-2018-30页-6mb

报告摘要

2018 Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook: Singapore Summary

Core Content Overview

Singapore's real estate market in 2018 is expected to experience moderate growth in a fast-changing world, with low for longer trends anticipated in key sectors. The market is shaped by economic fundamentals, technological transformation, and supply-demand dynamics.

Economic Outlook

GDP Growth: Singapore's GDP grew at 3.6% in 2017, surpassing initial expectations. This growth is expected to moderate in 2018, with a projected CAGR of 2.6% over the next five years (2018–2023).
Growth Drivers: The recovery of the service sector and continued focus on digitisation and Industry Transformation Maps (ITMs) are key to long-term sustainable growth.
Challenges: An ageing population and foreign labor restrictions remain major constraints on growth. Innovation and productivity are critical to overcoming these challenges.
Interest Rates: A faster-than-expected normalization of interest rates could negatively impact global financial markets and real estate recovery.

Office Sector

Main Points

Demand Drivers: Stronger economic fundamentals, especially in financial & insurance, information & communications, and business services, are expected to boost office demand.
Technology Influence: The technology sector was the most active in 2017, with a significant portion of new leasing activity. Companies are seeking flexible and modern workplace environments.
Co-Working Growth: The co-working market grew by 53.9% y-o-y, reaching 700,000 sq. ft.. This trend is expected to continue in 2018 with new projects and funding injections.
Supply Trends: The supply pipeline is tapering, with an average of 1.24 mil sq. ft. of new office completions expected over 2018–2022, down from the 10-year average of 1.85 mil sq. ft..
Vacancy Trends: Vacancy rates in the Grade A Core CBD are expected to trend downward due to tightening supply and strong demand.
Rent Recovery: With reduced supply and increased demand, office rents are projected to recover strongly, especially in the Grade A Core CBD segment.

Retail Sector

Main Points

Demand Trends: Retail demand is showing signs of improvement, with consumer sentiment and tourism arrivals contributing positively. F&B and sports & fitness are particularly strong segments.
Supply Outlook: New supply in 2018 is expected to be 1.22 mil sq. ft., mainly in suburban and fringe areas. This is less than the five-year average but still significant.
Rent Trends: Prime rents are expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with the Orchard Road submarket leading the recovery.
Pop-Up Stores: These are expected to continue to grow as a key format for differentiated retail experiences, especially in the luxury and F&B sectors.
Placemaking: Landlords are focusing on creating engaging spaces to attract consumers, including interactive features and technology integration.

Logistics Sector

Main Points

Supply and Demand: Warehouse supply reached a record level in 2017, driven by mega logistics hubs. Net absorption exceeded 2016 levels by 114.7%, indicating strong demand.
Occupiers: Demand is driven by third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and occupiers with diverse inventory needs, including high-tech manufacturing, automotive, e-commerce, and specialised storage.
Automation Trends: The consolidation of logistics operations is expected to increase automation, especially in high-tech warehouses.
Supply Outlook: Logistics supply is expected to moderate in 2018, with 4.27 mil sq. ft. of new supply entering the market over 2018–2020, a 3.8% increase in existing warehouse stock.

Residential Sector

Price Trends: Home prices are expected to turn around due to positive sentiments and a short-term supply squeeze, driven by higher land costs.
Market Dynamics: The residential market is expected to remain strong, with limited quality stock and tightening availability in the Core CBD over the medium term.

Capital Markets

Investment Activity: Expected to be driven by investors seeking higher returns from development sites and alternative assets.
Focus on Innovation: Capital markets are likely to support innovation and productivity gains through development and investment in key sectors.

Key Risks

Labour Constraints: An ageing population and foreign labor restrictions are key concerns for future growth.
Interest Rate Normalisation: A faster-than-expected rate increase could hinder market recovery.
Global Uncertainty: Protectionist sentiments and geopolitical shifts may affect trade and investment flows.

Opportunities

Office Sector: Co-working operators and flexible workplace designs will continue to be key opportunities.
Retail Sector: Pop-up stores and placemaking are growing trends that offer differentiated experiences.
Logistics Sector: Automation and specialised storage will drive future demand and efficiency gains.

Conclusion

Singapore's real estate market in 2018 is expected to evolve and adapt to changing economic and technological landscapes. While growth will be moderate, opportunities are emerging in office, retail, and logistics sectors, driven by strong fundamentals, innovation, and strategic investments. The market is moving towards more flexible and tech-integrated solutions, with landlords and occupiers needing to stay agile and forward-thinking to capitalize on these trends.