2018年新加坡房地产市场展望（英文）_30页-6mb

2018 Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook - Singapore Summary

Core Content Overview

Singapore's real estate market in 2018 is expected to experience moderate growth in a fast-changing global environment, with the economy showing signs of a more broad-based recovery. The market is shaped by both economic fundamentals and sector-specific dynamics, with a focus on productivity, technology, and shifting consumer preferences.

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Singapore's GDP is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.6% over the next five years (2018–2023), with a 3.6% growth in 2017 surpassing initial estimates.
• Growth Drivers: The recovery of the service sector, supported by the Industry Transformation Maps (ITMs) and Smart Nation initiatives, is expected to underpin future growth.
• Challenges: An ageing population and restrictions on foreign labor remain key constraints on growth. Innovation and productivity are critical to overcoming these challenges.
• Global Risks: A faster-than-expected normalization of interest rates could negatively impact global financial markets, while geopolitical shifts continue to affect the global trade landscape.

Office Sector

• Demand: The office sector is expected to see a stronger recovery in 2018, driven by improved economic fundamentals and increased demand from key sectors such as financial & insurance, information & communications, and business services.
• Technology Influence: Technology firms were the most active in 2017, with a third of total new leasing activity. The push for flexible and modern workspaces is expected to continue.
• Co-Working Growth: The co-working market grew by 53.9% in 2017, with major players expanding. It is projected to grow by over 80% to more than 1.20 mil sq. ft. by the end of 2018.
• Supply: The supply of new office space is expected to taper off, with an average of 1.24 mil sq. ft. over 2018–2022, down from the 10-year average of 1.85 mil sq. ft.
• Vacancy Trends: Vacancy rates in the Grade A Core CBD market are expected to decline due to limited quality stock and strong pre-commitment levels, such as Frasers Tower with over 70% pre-commitment as of January 2018.
• Rental Recovery: Landlords are gaining more bargaining power, leading to a projected acceleration in office rental growth. The Grade A Core CBD market is expected to see the strongest gains.

Retail Sector

• Demand Recovery: The retail market is showing signs of improvement, with macro-indicators like GDP, employment, and consumer sentiment on an uptrend. Some segments such as wearing apparel, luxury goods, and department stores have shifted to positive territory.
• F&B Saturation: The F&B sector is nearing saturation, with a marginal decline in sales value in 2017. However, the health and wellness trend is boosting demand for sports and fitness-themed retailers.
• Supply Trends: Approximately 1.22 mil sq. ft. of new retail supply is expected in 2018, primarily in suburban and fringe areas. The suburban market remains the most resilient.
• Rental Trends: Prime retail rents are expected to stabilize or rise slightly, with the Orchard Road submarket leading the recovery as tourist arrivals and spending are projected to increase.
• Innovation in Retail: Retailers are adopting new formats such as pop-up stores and integrating technology to enhance the customer experience. Placemaking and creating activity-based environments are key strategies for landlords.

Logistics Sector

• Demand Growth: Logistics demand was driven by third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and occupiers with diverse inventory needs. The sector saw a record net absorption of 8.61 mil sq. ft. in 2017.
• Supply Dynamics: Logistics supply in 2017 reached 10.37 mil sq. ft., significantly higher than the 10-year average. The upcoming supply from 2018–2020 is projected to be 4.27 mil sq. ft.
• Automation and Consolidation: The rise in automation and the consolidation of operations into larger logistics hubs are expected to drive demand for highly automated warehouses.

Residential Sector

• Price Recovery: Home prices are expected to turn around due to positive sentiments and a short-term supply squeeze, primarily driven by higher land costs.
• Market Dynamics: Limited quality residential supply may encourage some tenants to look for alternatives in the secondary market or Grade B stock.

Capital Markets

• Investment Trends: Investment activity is expected to be driven by the search for higher returns from development sites and alternative assets.

Key Risks

• Labour Constraints: An ageing population and foreign labor restrictions continue to be a concern for long-term growth.
• Interest Rates: A faster normalization of interest rates could negatively impact the recovery of global financial markets.
• Market Volatility: The potential for deeper stock market corrections could affect investor confidence and limit growth prospects.

Conclusion

The Singapore real estate market in 2018 is poised for moderate growth, supported by improving economic fundamentals, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences. The office and retail sectors are expected to show the most significant recovery, while the logistics sector continues to benefit from automation and consolidation. Overall, the market remains dynamic, with a need for innovation and adaptability to sustain growth in the long term.