CBRE-2018马来西亚房地产市场展望（英文版）-2018-110页-10mb

2018 Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook: Malaysia

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook on the Malaysian real estate market for 2018, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities across various property sectors. It also outlines the joint venture between CBRE and WTW, which combines local expertise with global reach to serve clients in Malaysia.

Joint Venture Formation

• CBRE | WTW Joint Venture: Formed in May 2016, the joint venture integrates Malaysia's largest real estate services provider, WTW's local knowledge, and CBRE's global services.
• Historical Context: CBRE acquired businesses from WTW in Singapore and Hong Kong in the 1970s, which are now part of its Asian operations.
• Subsidiaries and Offices: The WTW Group includes several subsidiaries and associated offices in East Malaysia, such as:
  • C H Williams Talhar Wong & Yeo Sdn Bhd (1975)
  • C H Williams Talhar & Wong (Sabah) Sdn Bhd (1977)
  • C H Williams Talhar & Wong (Brunei) Sdn Bhd

Key Market Insights

Economic Performance in 2017

• GDP Growth: Malaysia's economy showed strong momentum in 2017, with real GDP growth at 5.8% in 2Q 2017, surpassing expectations.
• GDP Per Capita: Increased to RM34,727 in 2016, indicating improved living standards and potential for higher consumer spending.
• Sector Contributions:
  • Construction: Recorded the highest growth at 8.3% in 2Q 2017.
  • Manufacturing: Expanded by 6% in 2Q 2017, driven by electronics and exports.
  • Services: Grew by 6.3%, supported by increased retail and wholesale trade.
  • Agriculture: Moderated to 5.9% growth in 2Q 2017.
  • Mining: Experienced the lowest growth at 0.2% due to global oil production cuts.

Market Activity

• Transaction Volume: Over 153,000 transactions worth RM67 billion in 1H 2017, showing a 6% decline in volume but a 5% increase in value compared to 1H 2016.
• Residential Sector: Dominated the market with 61.8% of volume and 48.4% of value.
• Loan Activity:
  • Total loans in the financial market reached RM1.55 trillion in 2Q 2017.
  • 32.2% of loans were for real estate, with a slight increase in loan approvals for residential property.
  • Loan approval rate for residential property in 2Q 2017 was 42.9%, up from 42.3% in 1Q 2017.

Government Measures and Policy Impact

• Cooling Measures: Implemented to curb speculation, including Real Property Gains Tax, foreign ownership restrictions, and freezing of development approvals for luxury properties.
• Affordable Housing: A significant focus, with challenges in location, amenities, and building quality.
• PR1MA Financing Scheme: Introduced to support affordable housing, offering special financing and interest-free periods for the first five years.

Infrastructure Development

• Rail Projects:
  • East Coast Rail Link (ECRL): Expected to be completed by 2024, with ground breaking in August 2017.
  • Electrified Double Track Project (EDTP): Between Gemas and Johor Bahru, expected to be completed by 2020.
  • High Speed Rail (HSR): Connecting Malaysia to Singapore, in design stage with land acquisition ongoing.
  • LRT Line 3: Construction to start in November 2017.
  • MRT 2 (SSP Line): In sub-contractor tender stage.
  • MRT 3 (Circle Line): In planning.
• Highway Projects:
  • DASH, EKVE, MEX II, Pan-Borneo Highway, SKIP, SUKE, WCE: All under development or planning stages.
• Port Development:
  • Kuantan Port New Deepwater Terminal: Under construction, expected to be completed in 2018.

Sector Outlook for 2018

• Hotel and Tourism: Expected to perform well due to Malaysia's diverse geography and cultural appeal, supported by the '2020 Visit Malaysia Year' initiative and airport upgrades.
• Industrial Sector: Benefiting from the Digital Free Trade Zone and Industrial Revolution 4.0, with a focus on logistics and distribution.
• Office Sector: Facing over-supply concerns, particularly in Klang Valley, with vacancy rates projected to rise to 32% by 2021.
• Retail Sector: Also affected by over-supply, with the government recommending a freeze on new developments.

Market Challenges

• Political Uncertainty: The upcoming General Election may create market anxiety and reduce activity.
• Currency Weakness: The Ringgit has weakened against major currencies over the past five years, impacting foreign investment.
• Economic Retaliation: Global events like Brexit and geopolitical tensions may lead to economic retaliation, affecting Malaysia's trade and investment environment.
• Credit Constraints: Prudent lending by banks and a weakening financial profile among Malaysians may increase barriers to property purchases.

Conclusion

The Malaysian real estate market is expected to see a moderate recovery in 2018, driven by tourism and industrial growth. However, challenges such as political uncertainty, over-supply in office and retail sectors, and credit constraints may persist. The joint venture between CBRE and WTW is well-positioned to navigate these dynamics and provide strategic insights to clients.