CBRE-2018日本房地产市场展望（英文版）-2018-34页-4mb

报告摘要

2018 Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook: Japan

Core Content Summary

The 2018 Asia-Pacific real estate market outlook for Japan highlights a continued trend of low but stable economic growth, with a notable shift in the real estate market dynamics from landlords' to occupiers' markets. The report emphasizes the impact of economic conditions, monetary policy, and supply-demand imbalances on various real estate sectors, including office, logistics, and retail. Additionally, it provides forecasts for vacancy rates, rents, and investment trends across major cities.

Main Points

Economic Outlook

The Japanese economy has experienced seven consecutive quarters of GDP growth from Q1 2016 to Q3 2017, marking the longest continuous expansion in over sixteen years.
Economic growth is expected to remain low but steady in 2018, with real GDP growth projected at 1.7%.
The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's normalization policy may lead to a weaker Yen, but could slow U.S. economic growth from 2019 onwards, potentially leading to negative growth in Japan in 2020 if the consumption tax hike occurs.

Office Sector

Tokyo is expected to shift from a landlords' market to an occupiers' market, with new supply rising to 233,000 tsubo in 2018 and 2019, a 30% increase compared to the past 10 years.
Office demand remains strong due to stable economic conditions and corporate profits, with companies seeking better locations and higher-grade premises to attract talent.
Vacancy rates in Tokyo are forecast to increase, reaching 5% by end-2019 and potentially 6.8% by end-2020.
Grade A rents are expected to decline by 8% by end-2019 and by 20% by end-2020, unless the consumption tax hike is postponed.
Regional cities such as Osaka, Nagoya, and others are expected to maintain tighter supply-demand balances, leading to continued rent increases.

Logistics Sector

Demand for logistics facilities is driven by the expansion of e-commerce, though labor shortages remain a challenge.
New supply is significant in Greater Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, with Tokyo expecting a record 470,000 tsubo in 2018 and 550,000 tsubo in 2019.
Vacancy rates in Tokyo are expected to rise due to the high volume of new supply, with some areas like Ken-O-do likely to see higher vacancy rates.
The Tokyo Bay Area is expected to maintain a tighter vacancy rate, while other areas may see more fluctuation.

Retail Sector

The growth of e-commerce is affecting the retail property market, with prime high street locations adopting show-room strategies.
Luxury and duty-free sales have recovered due to the strong stock market and stable currency.
In Ginza, rents have adjusted following a slowdown in demand from luxury retailers, but are expected to stabilize or bottom out in 2018.
Retailers are increasingly focusing on "experience" over physical goods, leading to a shift in demand and rent trends.

Investment Trends

Investors remain interested in Japanese real estate, but supply, especially of prime assets, is limited.
Uncertainty around future rental outlooks is widening the price gap between buyers and sellers.
Transaction volumes are expected to decline year-on-year in 2018.
Cap rates are likely to remain low due to the continued stability of interest rates.
Mid-sized offices, regional prime offices, and logistics facilities in Tokyo are expected to see further compression in rents.

Key Figures and Projections

Vacancy Rates and Rent Forecasts (2017-2019)

City	2017 Vacancy Rate	2018 Vacancy Rate	2019 Vacancy Rate	Vacancy Rate Change (2017-2019)	2017 Rent (JPY/tsubo)	2018 Rent (JPY/tsubo)	2019 Rent (JPY/tsubo)	Rent Change (2017-2019)
Tokyo	1.5%	2.3%	2.8%	+1.3pts	36,450	35,250	33,450	-8.2%
Osaka	2.4%	2.2%	2.4%	-0.0pts	21,950	22,650	22,850	+4.1%
Nagoya	2.6%	2.0%	1.8%	-0.8pts	24,500	24,850	25,050	+2.2%
Yokohama	5.5%	2.7%	3.9%	-1.6pts	14,700	14,880	15,580	+6.0%
Saitama	0.4%	0.2%	1.3%	+0.9pts	16,680	17,300	17,740	+6.4%
Sapporo	0.5%	0.2%	1.6%	+1.1pts	12,720	13,120	13,460	+5.8%
Sendai	4.0%	1.5%	3.2%	-0.8pts	10,070	10,680	11,330	+12.5%
Kanazawa	6.8%	4.4%	6.2%	-0.6pts	10,160	10,550	10,820	+6.5%
Kyoto	0.6%	0.2%	2.5%	+1.9pts	13,060	13,420	13,690	+4.8%
Kobe	4.3%	2.0%	3.4%	-0.9pts	10,920	11,020	11,190	+2.5%
Hiroshima	3.1%	0.5%	4.7%	+1.6pts	10,690	10,780	10,960	+2.5%
Takamatsu	8.4%	6.4%	8.6%	+0.2pts	8,890	9,050	9,230	+3.8%
Fukuoka	0.5%	0.2%	2.1%	+1.6pts	13,230	13,940	14,490	+9.5%

Major Development Pipeline

No	Building Name	Location	Projected Completion	GFA (tsubo)
1	Otemachi 2-chome Redevelopment Building A	2, Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku	2018	60,198
2	Hibiya Mitsui Tower	1, Yurakucho, Chiyoda-ku	2018	57,165
3	Marunouchi Nijubashi Building	3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku	2018	53,000
4	Otemachi 2-chome Redevelopment Building B	2, Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku	2018	45,375
5	Nihonbashi Takashimaya Mitsui Building	2, Nihonbashi, Chuo-ku	2018	44,789
6	Taiyo Life Nihonbashi Building	2, Nihonbashi, Chuo-ku	2018	18,189
7	Shibuya Stream	3, Shibuya, Shibuya-ku	2018	35,181
8	Tamachi Station Tower S	3, Shibaura, Minato-ku	2018	41,836
9	Nippon Life Hamamatsucho Crea Tower	2, Hamamatsucho, Minato-ku	2018	30,031
10	Sumitomo Fudousan Osaki Garden Tower	1, Nishishinagawa, Shinagawa-ku	2018	53,843
11	Nihonbashimuromachi Redevelopment District A	3, Nihonbashimuromachi, Chuo-ku	2019	50,820
12	Nagasaka Sangyo Kyobashi Building	1, Kyobashi, Chuo-ku	2019	12,614
13	Toranomon Hills Business Tower	1, Toranomon, Minato-ku	2019	51,000
14	Toranomon 2-10 Project	2, Toranomon, Minato-ku	2019	19,400
15	Atagoyama Project Area F, G	1, Atago, Minato-ku	2019	16,000
16	Shinbashi 1-chome Project	1, Shinbashi, Minato-ku	2019	10,920
17	Sumitomo Fudosan Nishi Shinjuku 6-chome Project	6, Nishishinjuku, Shinjuku-ku	2019	18,550
18	Shibuya Scramble Square	2, Shibuya, Shibuya-ku	2019	54,752
19	Shibuya Parco Project	Udagawacho, Shibuya-ku	2019	19,360
20	Dogenzaka 1-chome Redevelopment Ekimea District	1, Dogenzaka, Shibuya-ku	2019	17,750
21	Nanpeidai Project	1, Dogenzaka, Shibuya-ku	2019	14,204
22	Shinjuku Minamiguchi Project	5, Sendagaya, Shibuya-ku	2019	13,349
23	Sumitomo Fudosan Shibuya Project	Udagawacho, Shibuya-ku	2019	11,671
24	Hato Bus Konan Building	1, Konan, Minato-ku	2019	11,050
25	Seibu Railway Ikebukuro Building	1, Minamiikebukuro, Toshima-ku	2019	15,022

Conclusion

The 2018 real estate market outlook for Japan is characterized by a shift from landlord to occupier dynamics, driven by economic stability and corporate expansion. While Tokyo is expected to see a significant increase in supply leading to a decline in rents, regional cities are likely to maintain tighter supply and higher rent growth. The report also highlights the potential for negative economic growth in Japan in 2020, which could further impact the market. Investment activity remains strong but is affected by supply constraints and rental uncertainty.

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