CBRE-2018澳大利亚房地产市场展望（英文版）-2018-40页-15mb

2018 Australia Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Australian real estate market outlook highlights a shift from previous growth drivers, with a focus on geographic economic convergence, counter-cyclical investment opportunities, and the evolving role of technology in property sectors. The overall economic growth is expected to remain steady but below long-run averages, with low inflation and stable interest rates. The residential market is anticipated to experience a slowdown, while non-mining capital expenditure (CAPEX) is expected to improve, contributing to a more balanced economic growth composition.

Main Views

Economic Outlook

• Growth Composition: The Australian economy is expected to continue with steady, non-accelerating growth in 2018, with a shift in growth drivers from housing to non-mining sectors.
• Inflation and Rates: Inflation remains low, and official interest rates are expected to stay stable, though global interest rate increases could impact asset pricing.
• CAPEX Trends: There is a noticeable improvement in non-mining CAPEX plans, which are expected to provide a counterbalance to the expected decline in housing activity.

Residential Market

• Cycle Peak: The apartment development cycle has peaked, leading to increased vacancy and potential price reductions.
• Regional Variations: Sydney and Melbourne have low vacancy rates and are better positioned to withstand new supply, while Brisbane and Perth are expected to see a recovery.
• Price Adjustments: Residential prices are projected to fall by 5-10%, consistent with historical market downswings, but with an indirect impact on consumer spending.

Office Sector

• Convergence from Divergence: The office market is expected to start converging, with Sydney and Melbourne peaking and Brisbane and Perth recovering.
• Vacancy Trends: All CBD office markets are expected to see a decline in vacancy rates, with Sydney CBD vacancy at 3.6% and Brisbane CBD at ~14%.
• Technology Impact: Technology is reshaping the office market, with a focus on flexible working environments, mobility, and smart buildings.

Logistics & Industrial Sector

• Omnichannel Real Estate: The alignment of retail and industrial operations is driving the trend of omnichannel real estate, with a focus on supply chain efficiency.
• E-commerce Growth: The e-commerce sector is expected to expand, leading to increased demand for last-mile warehousing and logistics space.
• High-Tech Manufacturing: High-tech manufacturing is emerging as a key growth area, with a preference for skilled workforce locations like Melbourne's South East and Sydney's Macquarie Park.

Retail Sector

• Shift to Experience and Convenience: Retail is evolving towards experiential and convenient formats, driven by technology.
• Omnichannel Models: Retailers are adopting omnichannel strategies, requiring both physical and online presence.
• Challenges: Structural and cyclical headwinds, including weak sales growth and competition, are expected to limit retail growth in 2018.

Hotel Sector

• Market Recovery: Brisbane and Perth are expected to rebound, while Melbourne's growth may be hampered by increased supply.
• Investor Attention: Investors are likely to focus on markets at the bottom of the cycle, such as Brisbane and Perth.

Capital Markets

• Yield Compression: Yields on real assets are at cyclical lows, with limited room for further compression.
• Investor Strategy: A long-term hold strategy is recommended due to the gradual nature of the decompression cycle.
• Countercyclical Opportunities: Brisbane and Perth are highlighted as countercyclical investment opportunities.

Key Information

• Geographic Convergence: Markets like Brisbane and Perth are expected to recover, while Sydney and Melbourne may see slower growth.
• Multifamily Market: Expected to gain traction as an alternative asset class.
• Technology Disruption: Technology is playing a major role in reshaping office, industrial, and retail sectors.
• E-commerce Influence: E-commerce growth is driving demand for logistics and last-mile warehousing, especially in major cities.
• Occupier Preferences: Occupiers are prioritizing experience, convenience, and technology integration in their real estate needs.
• Supply Dynamics: Limited new supply in key markets is expected to maintain vacancy rates and support rent growth.
• Investor Behavior: Investors are showing interest in countercyclical markets and long-term hold strategies due to the current market conditions.

Risks & Opportunities

• Geographic Value Shifts: Continued convergence in property markets may lead to shifts in relative value.
• Technology Integration: While technology is a key disruptor, its implementation is constrained by cost and payback periods.
• Occupier Demand Changes: The evolving needs of occupiers, including the rise of knowledge work, are influencing the demand for office space.
• Market Convergence: The shift from divergence to convergence in office markets is expected to create more balanced performance.
• Industrial Repurposing: Secondary warehouse spaces are being repurposed for last-mile logistics, leading to potential yield compression in 2018.

Conclusion

The 2018 Australian real estate market is poised for a transition from previous growth drivers to more balanced and technology-driven opportunities. With a focus on geographic convergence, counter-cyclical investment, and the integration of technology, the market is expected to evolve towards more flexible and efficient real estate solutions.