CBRE-2018越南房地产市场展望（英文版）-2018-28页-3mb

报告摘要

2018 Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook: Vietnam

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Asia-Pacific real estate market outlook for Vietnam highlights a positive economic growth trajectory, supported by strong foreign investment and key trade agreements. The country is expected to continue its development in various real estate sectors, including office, retail, logistics, and condominiums, with infrastructure investment and consumer behavior shifts playing a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.

Economic Outlook

GDP Growth: Vietnam achieved a 6.8% GDP growth in 2017, positioning itself as one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia.
FDI Inflow: FDI reached a record high of $36 billion in 2017, with $21 billion in new licensed capital.
Trade Agreements: The CPTPP is expected to be signed in March 2018, and the EVFTA is anticipated to be passed in the same year. These agreements will open up new export markets for Vietnam's footwear, textiles, and electronics.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation is expected to slightly increase but remain under the 4% target. Interest rates have been low and stable since 2013, contributing to confident investment climate.
Stock Market: The Vietnamese stock market is projected to continue its momentum, with 73% y-o-y market capitalization growth and 48% y-o-y increase in VN-Index.

Office Sector

HCMC

Positive Growth: Office rents improved in 2017 despite new supply, with Grade A and B performance showing strength.
Supply Trends: New supply in 2018 is limited to two Grade B buildings, with no new Grade A completions. Rental growth is expected at 2%.
Future Developments: In 2020, Grade A supply will increase with Tax Centre and Spirit of Saigon projects in the CBD.
Demand Drivers: Manufacturing, IT, and logistics are key sectors driving demand. Relocation to better quality spaces is expected to boost rental growth.
CBD Focus: With limited CBD land availability, fringe areas are becoming more attractive for development. Phase 2 of Viettel Complex in District 10 is a notable project.

Hanoi

Recovery Signs: Hanoi's office market showed recovery in 2017, with rental growth for the first time in a decade.
Supply Growth: Supply growth slowed to 5% in 2017, leading to higher occupancy rates and rental increases.
Future Outlook: Grade A rental growth is expected to reach 3.5% in 2018, with occupancy rates rising to 96%.
Grade B Challenges: Grade B supply is expected to grow, but rental rates may remain flat due to increased competition.
Pipeline: In 2019 and 2020, new supply will increase, with Grade A becoming the dominant segment.

Retail Sector

HCMC

CBD Retail: Low vacancy and high rental rates in CBD, with limited new supply in 2018.
Non-CBD Growth: Non-CBD retail supply is increasing, with podiums becoming a key format. Vacancy rates are expected to rise to 20% by 2020.
Future Supply: 430,000 sm NLA will be added in non-CBD areas over the next three years, with East Districts seeing the most growth.
Anchor Tenants: Anchor tenants like Phuong Nam Book City are crucial for attracting foot traffic and increasing dwell time.

Hanoi

CBD Retail: Only 7% of retail supply is located in the CBD, with no new supply expected in the near future.
Non-CBD Expansion: Non-CBD retail is growing, with 375,000 sm NLA expected to be added over the next three years.
Key Projects: Aeon Mall Ha Dong, Vincom, and FLC are among the major developments. Lotte Group is also entering the Western area.
Emerging CBD: The Western area of Hanoi is expected to become an Emerging CBD, with Cau Giay, Tu Liem, and Thanh Xuan districts as the largest retail cluster.

Logistics Sector

Warehouse Demand: Demand is supported by manufacturing growth and rising e-commerce activity.
Key Sectors: 3PLs, retail, and manufacturing are the main drivers of warehouse demand.
Preferred Locations: HCMC, Binh Duong, Hanoi, Bac Ninh, and Dong Nai are the most attractive locations.
Future Supply: Quality supply will increase in both Northern and Southern regions.
Technology Integration: Automated storage and logistics robots are recommended to enhance competitiveness in prime logistics spaces.

Condominium and Capital Markets

Condominium Growth: The condominium sector is expected to drive retail podium development.
Capital Markets: Healthy foreign investment and positive economic signals are boosting investor confidence and market performance.

Key Trends and Drivers

Infrastructure Investment: Vietnam is one of the highest infrastructure spenders in Southeast Asia, with 5.7% of GDP invested annually.
Consumer Confidence: Vietnamese consumers are becoming more confident in spending, with lower savings rates (63%) and higher consumer spending.
Sustainability Trends: Health and wellness are growing priorities, with 77% of consumers willing to pay more for products with wellness benefits.
Millennials Influence: Millennials are shaping future demand, favoring convenience, modernity, and experience in retail and F&B.
Trade Agreements: CPTPP and EVFTA are expected to boost export markets and attract more foreign investment.

Conclusion

Vietnam's real estate market is poised for continued growth in 2018, driven by positive economic performance, strategic trade agreements, and ongoing infrastructure development. Office and retail sectors are expected to benefit from strong demand, limited supply, and increased investment. Logistics and condominium sectors are also showing promising growth, supported by technological advancements and expanding consumer bases. The market's stability and attractive investment potential make Vietnam a key player in the Asia-Pacific real estate landscape.