20230517-国金证券-商贸零售行业点评_4月弱复苏下必需韧性强_可选低基数下增速靓丽_5页_683kb

报告摘要

Overall Performance in April 2023: China's social消费品 retail额 increased by +18.4% year-on-year in April 2023, driven by low base effects from the previous year's pandemic. It was faster than the same period in 2021 and better than in March 2023. Limited companies also saw strong growth.
Key Categories:
- Optional Consumption: Jewelry led with high growth (+447% YoY in April), while cosmetics performed weaker. Factors include rising gold prices and wedding demand.
- Durable Goods: Appliances and furniture showed positive trends, with car sales rebounding.
- Necessary Goods: Stabilized, with food, drug, and beverage categories performing steadily despite some slowdowns.
Channels and Regions: Online sales surged in April with +312% YoY growth. Offline consumption continued its recovery, with strong performance in retail shops. Urban areas showed slightly better recovery than rural regions.
Forecasts and Risks:
- Cosmetics sector expected to see diverging brand performance. Jewelry anticipated strong demand, especially for weddings and national trends.
- Potential risks: Slower consumer income growth, lack of confidence, or pandemic disruptions could impact results.
Comparison to 2021: Growth trends show some recovery to or above 2021 levels for certain categories, but composites indicate variability.