20231204-中邮证券-储能行业2024年投资策略报告_曙光在前_拾级而上_24页_672kb

报告摘要

Energy Storage Market Analysis Summary

Executive Summary

This report provides an update on the global energy storage market for 2023 and outlook for 2024. Despite global economic pressures, the industry showed resilience, with varying performance across regions. Key drivers for 2024 include anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising renewable energy penetration, and falling costs. Recommendations focus on China's commercial sector, U.S. exports, and European recovery.

2023 Global Performance

The 2023 energy storage market experienced overall underperformance relative to initial expectations. Factors included economic strain, policy adjustments, and demand fluctuations:

China's growth slowed to ~33GWh (125% YoY), impacted by high interest rates and policy shifts.
U.S. performance was lukewarm at approximately 62GWh (50% YoY), affected by restrictive policies and economic conditions.
Europe saw reduced activity at around 156GWh (50% YoY), due to high consumer prices and inventory clearance.

2024 Forecast

A positive outlook for 2024 is supported by economic recovery, renewable energy expansion, and cost improvements:

Global storage capacity expected to reach 116GWh (+64% YoY).
- China: 59GWh (+80% YoY), driven by government support and both source-side and commercial deployments.
- U.S.: 33GWh (+50% YoY), benefited by potential policy easing and export opportunities.
- Europe: 24GWh (+50% YoY), with cycle restart due to inventory bottoms and grid enhancements.
Global economics suggest Fed rate reductions will boost recovery, supporting demand.
Prices are projected to bottom out in H1 2024, with price declines slowing as inventory is digested.

Price Trends

Storage prices fell throughout 2023, with a potential bottom forming later in the year. Price declines are expected to reverse once demand stabilizes, indicating a return to growth by mid-2024.