荷兰国际关系研究所-物质很少，影响很大-俄罗斯在塞尔维亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那和黑山的影响力（英）-2023.8-51页_1mb

Summary of Russian Influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro

Executive Summary

The Clingendael Report analyzes Russia's objectives and sources of influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro, placing the analysis in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia's main goals include projecting great power status, obstructing Western integration, and using the Balkans as a geopolitical tool. The report concludes that while influence is limited and not institutionalized, it has been effective through political, economic, and hybrid means, with varying degrees across the three countries.

Key Objectives of Russia

• Projecting great power status on the global stage.
• Obstructing Euro-Atlantic integration (NATO and EU) and fostering instability.
• Utilizing the Kosovo issue and regional tensions to justify broader Russian foreign policy, such as in Ukraine.

Sources of Russian Influence

Political Influence

• Relies on proxies like pro-Russian politicians (e.g., Milorad Dodik in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia), the Orthodox Church, and media.
• Narrative tools promote conservative, nationalist, and anti-Western views.

Economic Influence

• Dominant in energy sectors (e.g., gas imports in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina), providing political leverage.
• Trade ties are weak compared to the EU, but investments (e.g., in Montenegro's real estate) have grown due to the Ukraine conflict.

Security and Military Cooperation

• Maintains ties with Serbia through military exercises and arms supplies, supporting militarization in Republika Srpska.
• Exercises limited presence in Montenegro, which joined NATO in 2017.

Malign Activities

• Supports proxy groups like Night Wolves and Serbian Honour, engages in cyber attacks, and conducts disinformation campaigns.
• Russia uses energy diversification efforts by the EU and sanctions to strain its influence.

Country-Specific Findings

• Serbia: Russia has the strongest hold, via political alliances, the Orthodox Church, and energy links, hindering EU integration.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Influence is concentrated in Republika Srpska, contributing to instability and delaying progress with NATO.
• Montenegro: NATO membership and sanctions weaken influence, though pro-Russian political actors and cyber interference persist.

Conclusions

Russia pursues an opportunistic approach with limited, fragmented engagement. While influence has moderate strains from sanctions and energy diversification, Russian strategies remain largely unchanged. Overall, influence delays but does not fully block Euro-Atlantic integration. Enhanced EU and NATO efforts are needed to mitigate this.