20160601-招商证券-Morning_Express_CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

A-share Research Highlights Summary (June 1, 2016)

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of the A-share market trends and investment opportunities as of June 1, 2016. It discusses the historical "Sell in May" effect and its potential impact on the market in June 2016. Additionally, it includes key economic data, company events, and research coverage for various sectors.

Main Points

1. Empirical Study of "Sell in May" Effect

Historical Performance: Over the 13 years from 2003 to 2015, the A-share market had a negative cumulative return for 5 to 6 years out of 10, with a high probability of decline ($77%$).
Strategy Impact: If one adopts a short-selling strategy in May and June, the yield from investing in the Shanghai Composite Index could reach $200%$.
Reason for May/June Decline: The decline is attributed to the establishment of CBRC and industry guidelines, which caused banks to rush for deposits at the end of the quarter, tightening liquidity. Additionally, 1Q bank credits were abundant, and the Two Sessions in March set the tone for the economy.

2. Changes in Bank Appraisal System

The old logic of liquidity pressure due to the end of the quarter no longer applies.
However, there are new risks to be aware of in June 2016.

3. Key Risks for June 2016

Regulatory Tightening: The investment scale of bank funds through the channel business of securities companies, fund houses, and subsidiary companies has grown. This could lead to adverse effects on the bond and stock markets if regulation tightens.
US Fed Rate Hikes: The probability of US Fed rate hikes in June and July has sharply increased. The Fed's hawkish stance is becoming more evident.
Brexit Impact: Brexit has become a "black swan" event affecting the USD trend in June.
Capital Outflows: June will be the peak of capital outflows for incremental funding and IPOs, increasing market pressure.

4. Investment Opportunities

MSCI Inclusion: The probability of including A-shares in the MSCI index this year has increased significantly, potentially boosting the financial sector in the short term.
Financial Sector: The inclusion could bring RMB600 billion of incremental funding to chase RMB2 trillion of "free float" market capitalization over the next 5 to 7 years, possibly improving market sentiment.

Economic Data Overview

Country	Date	Event	Prior	Forecast
China	2016/06/01	NBS Non-Mfg PMI	53.5	--
China	2016/06/01	NBS Manufacturing PMI	50.1	--
China	2016/06/01	Caixin Mfg PMI Final	49.4	--
US		ADP National Employment	156k	180k
US		Construction Spending MM	0.3%	0.5%
US		ISM Manufacturing PMI	50.8	50.6
US	2016/06/02	API Weekly Crude Stocks	--	--
Euro zone		Producer Prices MM	0.3%	--
US		Initial Jobless Claims	--	--
US		EIA Weekly Crude Stocks	-4.23mn	--
China	2016/06/03	Caixin Services PMI	51.8	--
Euro zone		Retail Sales MM	-0.5%	--
US		Non-Farm Payrolls	160k	170k
US		Private Payrolls	171k	165k
US		Unemployment Rate	5%	5%
US		International Trade MM $	-40.4bn	-43bn
US		Durable Goods, R MM	1.3%	--
US		Factory Orders MM	1.5%	0.6%
US		ISM N-Mfg PMI	55.7	55.7

Company Events

Date	Ticker	Company	Event
2016/06/01	8170 HK	KSL Holdings Ltd.	3RD QTR RES/DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/04/16)

Research Coverage List

Auto & Auto Parts

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$7.55	HK$8.2	9	4,915	0.69	0.74	0.84	8.8	8.2	9.0
China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.83	HK$3.5	24	807	0.29	0.39	0.46	7.8	5.9	6.2
Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$4.11	HK$4.6	12	4,684	0.26	0.33	0.40	12.7	10.1	10.3
BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.44	HK$6.5	19	5,269	0.44	0.52	0.58	9.9	8.5	0.0
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.98	HK$7.0	17	7,041	0.88	0.94	1.02	5.4	5.1	5.9
Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$18.12	HK$20.0	10	5,864	1.09	1.16	1.31	13.3	12.6	11.0
China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$4.56	HK$6.2	36	927	0.39	0.42	0.50	9.4	8.8	0.0
Zhongsheng Group	881 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.17	HK$3.8	-9	1,155	0.21	0.25	0.29	15.9	13.5	14.4

Oil and Gas

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Sinopec Oilfield Service	1033 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.45	HK$1.5	3	4,744	0.01	-0.01	0.05	208.1	N.A.	17.1
China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	SELL	HK$5.91	HK$4.3	-27	3,638	0.23	-0.51	0.07	20.6	N.A.	8.1
CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$9.28	HK$10.7	15	53,448	0.45	0.01	0.39	16.5	749.3	6.8
Sinopec Kantons	934 HK	BUY	HK$3.88	HK$5.14	32	1,244	0.41	0.49	0.54	9.5	7.9	6.9

Property

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$18.58	HK$23.8	28	16,612	2.59	2.36	2.71	7.2	7.9	5.4
YUEXIU PROPERTY	123 HK	BUY	HK$0.99	HK$1.36	37	1,584	0.10	0.12	0.17	9.9	8.3	5.8
Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.24	HK$2.6	16	1,102	0.54	0.52	0.61	4.2	4.3	3.7
Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.11	HK$3.0	-4	9,062	0.54	0.56	0.67	5.8	5.6	4.6
Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	HK$3.83	HK$5.0	31	1,935	0.75	0.78	0.89	5.1	4.9	4.3
Greentown China	3900 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.45	HK$6.7	23	1,520	0.70	1.24	1.37	7.8	4.4	4.0
China Overseas Land	688 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$23.35	HK$28.2	21	29,703	3.47	3.27	3.46	6.7	7.1	6.7
CH OVS G OCEANS	81 HK	BUY	HK$2.38	HK$3.3	39	701	0.47	0.63	0.98	5.1	3.8	2.4
Shimao Property	813 HK	BUY	HK$9.84	HK$14.0	42	4,408	2.12	2.48	2.70	4.6	4.0	3.6
CIFI Holdings	884 HK	BUY	HK$1.83	HK$2.0	9	1,597	0.41	0.44	0.53	4.5	4.2	3.2
China Merchants Land	978 HK	BUY	HK$1.15	HK$1.5	30	728	0.06	0.19	0.30	15.3	4.9	3.8

Technology, Media & Telecom

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.62	HK$4.19	16	6,480	0.25	0.24	0.27	11.6	12.2	13.4
China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$8.39	HK$11.55	38	25,918	0.44	0.46	0.53	15.3	14.7	15.8
China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$88.6	HK$112.4	27	232,925	5.30	5.58	6.04	13.4	12.8	14.7
Wisdom	1661 HK	BUY	HK$2.67	HK$7.0	162	554	0.18	0.22	0.27	11.9	9.8	9.9
C CHUANGLIAN ED	2371 HK	BUY	HK$0.24	HK$0.79	229	144	0.01	0.02	0.04	19.2	9.7	9.5
Kingdee	268 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.66	HK$1.4	-47	875	0.10	-	N.A.	21.3	N.A.	N.A.
Kingsoft	3888 HK	BUY	HK$14.84	HK$27.42	85	2,435	0.33	0.71	1.53	36.0	16.9	10.2
Boyaa Interactive	434 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.75	HK$3.7	35	271	0.25	0.29	0.37	8.8	7.7	7.4
Car Inc	699 HK	BUY	HK$7.45	HK$23.15	211	2,271	0.46	0.86	1.02	13.0	7.0	15.0
Tencent	700 HK	BUY	HK$173.3	HK$174.0	0	41,685	3.24	4.20	5.22	42.8	33.3	22.7
NetDragon	777 HK	BUY	HK$25.0	HK$41.3	65	1,596	0.03	0.23	0.34	667.0	87.8	73.5
Linekong Interactive	8267 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.3	HK$5.33	24	185	0.16	0.44	0.59	21.5	7.9	0.0
Cheetah Mobile	CMCM US	BUY	US$10.77	US$40.0	271	1,480	1.39	7.30	13.56	76.3	14.6	11.5
58.com	WUBA US	BUY	US$54.05	US$93.0	72	2,659	-1.02	1.31	1.88	N.A.	41.3	28.8

Hardware Technology

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Cowell	1415 HK	BUY	HK$3.06	HK$3.97	30	328	0.08	0.08	0.09	4.9	4.9	34.0
AAC Technologies	2018 HK	BUY	HK$62.9	HK$64.0	2	9,964	2.53	3.10	3.61	19.9	16.4	17.4
Coolpad	2369 HK	SELL	HK$1.53	HK$0.56	-63	848	-0.07	0.07	0.07	21.9	21.9	21.9
Sunny Optical	2382 HK	BUY	HK$26.85	HK$24.2	-10	3,800	0.71	0.98	1.23	30.3	22.1	21.8
TCL Comm	2618 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.24	HK$4.96	-5	828	0.85	0.77	0.83	6.2	6.8	6.3
PAX Global	327 HK	BUY	HK$6.55	HK$10.04	53	930	0.56	0.58	0.70	11.7	11.3	9.4
Truly	732 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.29	HK$1.98	-40	1,234	0.29	0.29	0.31	11.3	11.3	10.6
Lenovo Group	992 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.77	HK$4.7	-1	6,836	-0.01	0.07	0.07	N.A.	8.8	68.1
Sky Light	3882 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.99	HK$0.95	-4	102	0.30	0.08	0.12	3.3	12.4	8.3
Tongda Group	698 HK	BUY	HK$1.65	HK$1.85	12	1,164	0.13	0.17	0.21	12.7	9.7	7.9

Textile & Garment

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Lilang	1234 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.57	HK$5.1	12	711	0.52	0.49	0.55	7.0	7.5	8.3
361 Degrees	1361 HK	BUY	HK$2.48	HK$3.48	40	661	0.25	0.28	0.30	7.9	7.2	8.3
Xstep International	1368 HK	BUY	HK$4.11	HK$4.88	19	1,155	0.29	0.33	0.35	11.3	10.1	11.7
ANTA Sports Products	2020 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$16.9	HK$20.42	21	5,452	0.82	0.93	1.06	16.5	14.7	15.9
Trinity	891 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.59	HK$0.83	41	133	0.00	0.08	0.13	N.A.	7.4	4.5
I.T	999 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.58	HK$2.08	-19	406	0.24	0.19	0.30	10.8	13.6	8.6

Consumer Staple

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Hengan Int'l	1044 HK	BUY	HK$70.1	HK$80.0	14	11,069	3.60	3.90	4.20	19.5	18.0	16.7
Biostime	1112 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$23.75	HK$29.1	23	1,930	0.41	1.51	1.99	46.4	12.7	11.1
Jiashili Group	1285 HK	BUY	HK$3.59	HK$4.6	28	192	0.26	0.31	0.38	13.8	11.6	7.1
Want Want China	151 HK	BUY	HK$5.5	HK$5.8	5	9,225	0.04	0.05	0.05	17.7	14.2	17.8
Uni-President China	220 HK	BUY	HK$7.06	HK$6.6	-7	3,933	0.21	0.25	0.27	26.9	22.8	26.1
China Mengniu Dairy	2319 HK	BUY	HK$12.86	HK$16.0	24	6,508	0.61	0.64	0.72	16.9	16.2	13.5
Tingyi	322 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.06	HK$9.2	30	5,103	0.06	0.07	0.08	15.2	13.0	20.0

Retail

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (May 31)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Sinomax	1418 HK	BUY	HK$0.85	HK$0.92	8	192	0.10	0.11	0.14	8.5	7.7	6.1
Chow Tai Fook	1929 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.31	HK$4.34	-18	6,850	0.55	0.36	0.40	9.7	14.8	13.3
Cosmo Lady	2298 HK	BUY	HK$5.58	HK$7.13	28	1,372	0.28	0.34	0.41	16.0	13.3	13.6
Luk Fook Holdings	590 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$17.5	HK$19.51	11	1,330	2.74	2.05	2.44	6.4	8.5	7.2
Haier Electronics	1169 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$12.56	HK$13.5	7	4,527	1.03	1.08	1.21	9.8	9.4	10.4
Springland International	1700 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.01	HK$2.5	148	322	0.25	0.26	0.29	3.2	3.1	3.5
Intime Retail Group	1833 HK	BUY	HK$7.05	HK$8.45	20	1,827	0.37	0.37	0.39	15.3	15.4	18.1
Gome Electrical	493 HK	BUY	HK$0.93	HK$1.63	75	2,035	0.08	0.09	0.10	9.3	8.3	10.4
JD	JD US	BUY	US$24.61	US$38.0	54	33,666	-0.31	0.03	2.15	N.A.	5494.3	11.4