20160603-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_22页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document is a regional market update from Friday, 03 June 2016, covering key stock updates and market insights for several Asian markets, including Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. It provides analysis on company performance, investment recommendations, financial metrics, and market trends.
Key Stories and Investment Recommendations
Singapore
- FSSTI (Financial Services Sector Total Index) has a limited upside, suggesting a sniper approach.
- Outperformance themes:
- M&A fever
- Dividend yields with catalysts
- Recovering tourist arrivals
- Going global
China
- Kangda International Environmental (6136 HK):
- Downgraded to HOLD.
- Slower project win rate and dimmer growth outlook.
- Project backlog is dwindling, and the company may miss its full-year target of 800,000 tonnes/day of new capacity.
- Estimated earnings growth to decelerate to a CAGR of 7% in 2017-18.
- Target price: HK$1.80 (upside of +10.4% from current price of HK$1.63).
- Key Financials:
- Net profit: Rmb325m (2015), Rmb392m (2016F), Rmb387m (2017F), Rmb449m (2018F).
- EBITDA: Rmb686m (2015), Rmb801m (2016F), Rmb822m (2017F), Rmb939m (2018F).
- EPS: 15.7 (2015), 19.0 (2016F), 18.7 (2017F), 21.7 (2018F).
- PE: 8.9 (2015), 7.4 (2016F), 7.5 (2017F), 6.4 (2018F).
- P/B: 0.9 (2015), 0.7 (2016F), 0.7 (2017F), 0.6 (2018F).
- EV/EBITDA: 10.2 (2015), 8.7 (2016F), 8.5 (2017F), 7.4 (2018F).
- Net margin: 17.7 (2015), 21.1 (2016F), 23.5 (2017F), 21.4 (2018F).
- Earnings forecast cut by 5.8%, 20.7%, and 16.2% for 2016-18 due to slower project win rates and a non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) background, which reduces competitiveness.
Hong Kong
- Bank of East Asia (23 HK):
- Downgraded to SELL.
- Share price: HK$28.90.
- Target price: HK$24.30 (downside of -16.0%).
- Closed 22 brokerage outlets to save costs.
- Outlook remains challenging in 2016.
Indonesia
- Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ):
- Maintained as BUY.
- Target price: Rp4,800.
- No rights issue is a positive factor for the stock.
Malaysia
- Utilities sector:
- Expected tariff rebate of 1.75 sen/kwh in the upcoming June ICPT review.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Top pick: TNB (Tenaga Nasional Berhad).
Thailand
- Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB):
- Maintained as BUY.
- Target price: Bt235.00.
- Decline in UAE patient numbers has only a small impact on earnings.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17838.6 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 2.4 |
| S&P 500 | 2105.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.0 |
| FTSE 100 | 6185.6 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| AS30 | 5354.2 | -0.8 | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 |
| CSI 300 | 3167.1 | 0.2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | -15.1 |
| FSSTI | 2795.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.6 | -3.0 |
| HSCEI | 8756.4 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 | -9.4 |
| HSI | 20859.2 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | -4.8 |
| JCI | 4833.2 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.2 |
| KLCI | 1630.5 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -1.3 | -3.7 |
| KOSPI | 1985.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16562.6 | -2.3 | -1.3 | 2.6 | -13.0 |
| SET | 1424.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 10.6 |
| TWSE | 8556.0 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| BDI | 606 | -1.0 | 0.2 | -13.8 | 26.8 |
| CPO | 2641 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 20.1 |
| Brent Crude | 50 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 9.2 | 34.2 |
Top Picks and Sell Recommendations
BUY Recommendations
- Air China (753 HK): Target price HK$10.20 (upside +100.8%).
- Ping An (2318 HK): Target price HK$45.00 (upside +28.9%).
- Bank BJB (BJBR J): Target price Rp1,170.00 (upside +19.4%).
- Gamuda (GAM MK): Target price HK$5.55 (upside +16.1%).
- WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK): Target price HK$2.05 (upside +33.1%).
- City (CIT SP): Target price HK$10.86 (upside +28.5%).
- DBS (DBS SP): Target price HK$19.30 (upside +24.6%).
- Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Target price HK$27.70 (upside +16.9%).
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price HK$630.00 (upside +30.7%).
SELL Recommendations
- Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK): Target price HK$7.00 (downside -8.1%).
- Sapurakencana (SAKP MK): Target price HK$1.43 (downside -13.3%).
- Sembcorp (SMM SP): Target price HK$0.90 (downside -42.1%).
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP Growth (% yoy) | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Euro Zone | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Japan | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Indonesia | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
- Brent Crude (US$/bbl):
- 2015: 53.60
- 2016F: 42
- 2017F: 54
- CPO (RM/mt):
- 2015: 2,168
- 2016F: 2,500
- 2017F: 2,600
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Start | End |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meidong Auto Roadshow | United Kingdom | 6 Jun | 7 Jun |
| Spore Strategy for 2H16 & Small-Mid Caps Analyst Presentation | Taipei | 6 Jun | 7 Jun |
| China Aviation Oil Singapore Corporate Roadshow | Taipei | 7 Jun | 8 Jun |
| BIMB Holdings Luncheon | Malaysia | 9 Jun | 9 Jun |
| SIN Strategy for 2H16 & SIN Small-Mid Caps Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur | 16 Jun | 17 Jun |
Analysts
- Daniel Yang: +852 2236 6706, daniel.yang@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Yan Shi: 8621 5404 7225 ext. 804, yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
- Ken Lee: +852 2236 6760, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Sophie Yu: +852 2826 1392, sophie.yu@uobkayhian.com.hk
Summary of Key Themes
- M&A activity is a key driver for Singapore's financial sector.
- Dividend yields are a focus for outperformance in the region.
- Recovering tourist arrivals and global expansion are positive trends.
- Slower project win rates and diminished growth outlook are concerns for Kangda International Environmental.
- Sluggish US auto sales and order backlog peaking are leading to a SELL recommendation for Nexteer Automotive Group.
- China's auto market is also experiencing a slowdown, affecting Nexteer's performance.
- Indonesia's real estate sector is seen as a good investment with no rights issue.
- Malaysia's utilities sector is expected to benefit from a tariff rebate.
- Thailand's healthcare sector is a BUY due to resilience in earnings.
Conclusion
The document outlines a mix of BUY and SELL recommendations across various markets, emphasizing economic growth, market trends, and company-specific performance. It highlights the importance of dividend yields, M&A activity, and tariff rebates as key drivers of outperformance. However, slower project win rates, diminished growth outlook, and sluggish auto sales are major concerns, especially for Kangda International Environmental and Nexteer Automotive Group. The document also provides detailed financial metrics, earnings forecasts, and valuation data to support its investment stance.
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