20160915-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_22页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 15 September 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of regional market updates and insights, focusing on key economic indicators, corporate results, and policy changes across various markets in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. It includes financial data, analyst recommendations, and market outlooks for different sectors and companies.

Key Stories

Indonesia - Banking Sector

No meaningful EPS upgrades observed yet.
Loan growth and NPL recovery have been slow.
BBNI and BBCA show selective value due to strong recovery and solid performance.
BMRI may justify a re-rating, but credit costs could remain elevated.
SOE banks have grown loans by 16.4% yoy (1H16) vs. 4.0% for non-SOEs.
NPL ratio is forecasted at 3.6% (including restructured loans), down from 3.1% previously.
NPL forecast for 2017 is 3.0%, a slight improvement.
Loan growth is expected to be 10% for 2016 and 12% for 2017.
Restructured loans and NPLs are significant, with values of Rp97t and Rp127t respectively.

China - Monetary Policy

M2 money supply grew by 11.4% yoy in August 2016, beating market expectations.
M1 growth edged down slightly to 25.3% yoy.
New bank loan issuances were buoyed by household mortgage loans, with non-financial enterprise lending dropping.
TSF (Total Social Financing) increased to Rmb1.47t, suggesting a recovery in financial activity.
The distorted loan structure in favor of mortgages is a warning sign, possibly leading to tighter property market control and more government intervention.
The PBOC is in a dilemma between supporting monetary expansion and managing the housing bubble.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18034.8	(0.2)	(2.7)	(2.9)	3.5
S&P 500	2125.8	(0.1)	(2.8)	(2.7)	4.0
FTSE 100	6673.3	0.1	(2.5)	(3.5)	6.9
AS30	5326.6	0.3	(3.5)	(5.5)	(0.3)
CSI 300	3238.7	(0.7)	(3.1)	(4.6)	(13.2)
FSSTI	2809.4	(0.3)	(3.0)	(2.0)	(2.5)
HSI	23190.6	(0.1)	(2.3)	1.1	5.8
KLCI	1661.4	(0.9)	(1.7)	(1.7)	(1.8)
BDI	756	(5.0)	(2.2)	12.7	58.2
CPO (RM/ml)	2871	(0.9)	(0.6)	9.7	30.5
Brent Crude	46	(2.7)	(4.4)	(2.4)	23.0

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Pot. +/-
Air China	753 HK	5.52	8.40	52.2
Ping An Insurance	2318 HK	40.90	47.00	14.9
Ciputra Property	CTRP IJ	595.00	960.00	61.3
Indosat	ISAT IJ	5,675.00	9,500.00	67.4
Genting Bhd	GENT MK	7.77	9.75	25.5
City Dev	CIT SP	8.82	10.36	17.5
OCBC	OCBC SP	8.55	10.30	20.5
Bangkok Dusit	BDMS TB	22.20	30.00	35.1
Siam Cement	SCC TB	526.00	645.00	22.6

Sell Recommendation

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Pot. +/-
Hartalega	HART MK	4.43	3.10	(30.0)

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
Ann Joo Resources	Singapore	15 Sep	15 Sep
Corporate Roadshow
HC International Roadshow	Hong Kong	20 Sep	21 Sep
Plaza Premium Group Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	21 Sep	21 Sep
Skyworth Digital Hldgs Group Meeting	Hong Kong	21 Sep	21 Sep
Summit Ascent Luncheon	Hong Kong	21 Sep	21 Sep
Tsaker Chemical Roadshow	Hong Kong	22 Sep	22 Sep
Sembcorp Industries Corp Roadshow	Canada	26 Sep	27 Sep
Regional Financial and Telco Sector Analyst Presentation	UK/Europe	26 Sep	30 Sep
Cityneon Corporate Roadshow	Taipei	29 Sep	30 Sep
Xstep International Holdings Roadshow	Taipei	7 Oct	7 Oct
(Other)	Kuala Lumpur	15 Nov	15 Nov
Metro Pacific Investments Roadshow	Canada	24 Nov	25 Nov

Key Assumptions

Region	2015 GDP (yoy)	2016F GDP (yoy)	2017F GDP (yoy)
US	2.4	2.5	2.7
Euro Zone	1.6	1.5	1.6
Japan	0.5	0.6	0.8
Singapore	2.0	2.2	3.2
Malaysia	5.0	4.2	5.0
Thailand	2.8	3.2	3.6
Indonesia	4.8	5.0	5.5
Hong Kong	2.4	2.1	1.8
China	6.9	6.5	6.2

Indicator	2015	2016F	2017F
Brent (Average)	53.60	42	54
CPO (RM/mt)	2,168	2,500	2,600

Analysts

Chaoping Zhu
Email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com
Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
Ye Xu
Email: xuye@uobkayhian.com
Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 820
Edmond Law
Email: edmond.law@uobkayhian.com.hk
Phone: +852 2826 4837
Jasmine Duan
Email: jasmine.duan@uobkayhian.com.hk
Phone: +852 2826 1351

Our Views

Distorted loan structure in favor of mortgage loans is a red flag, potentially leading to tighter property market control and more government intervention.
PBOC dilemma: Balancing monetary expansion with housing bubble management.
HKEx is expected to maintain its SELL rating due to stretched valuations (40x 2016F PE vs historical mean of 28x).
The proposed changes to listing regulations are controversial, especially among smaller brokers.
LRC (Listing Regulatory Committee) and LPC (Listing Policy Committee) are being introduced to streamline and improve the decision-making process for listing regulations.
Earnings impact on HKEx is minimal, as only 10% of its revenue comes from listing-related activities.
Market concerns include the subjectivity of "suitability" criteria, reduced LC involvement, and potential conservative decisions from the LPC.

Company Results - Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (388 HK)

Key Financials

Metric	2014	2015	2016F	2017F	2018F
Net turnover (HK$m)	9,849.0	13,375.0	11,266.8	12,294.8	12,957.5
EBITDA (HK$m)	6,891.0	10,085.0	7,837.9	8,757.8	9,274.8
Net profit (HK$m)	5,165.0	7,956.0	6,023.0	6,796.1	7,217.8
EPS (cent)	443.8	670.4	498.6	562.6	597.5
PE (x)	44.9	29.7	40.0	35.4	33.4
P/B (x)	10.9	7.9	8.0	7.4	6.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	17.4	11.9	15.3	13.7	13.0
Dividend yield (%)	2.0	3.0	2.3	2.5	2.7
Net margin (%)	59.5	53.5	55.3	55.7	55.7

Key Metrics

Metric	2015	2016F	2017F	2018F
EBITDA margin	75.4	69.6	71.2	71.6
Pre-tax margin	69.4	62.6	64.6	65.0
Net margin	59.5	53.5	55.3	55.7
ROE	31.1	20.1	21.7	21.3
Debt to equity	11.5	11.3	10.5	9.7
Net debt/(cash) to equity	(360.4)	(406.6)	(430.0)	(450.1)

Summary

The report highlights the challenges in Indonesia's banking sector, China's monetary policy dilemmas, and regulatory changes in Hong Kong. It also provides detailed financials and analyst views on key companies and indices. Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on valuations, earnings, and structural policy impacts.

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