20160516-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2016.05.16_13页_1mb

Summary of Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook (May 16, 2016)

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) report provides an outlook for U.S. and Mexican sugar production, use, imports, and ending stocks for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 fiscal years. It outlines key trends and projections based on current data and assumptions about weather, planting progress, and trade policies.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Production and Use (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• 2016/17 U.S. sugar production is projected to decline by 2.6% to 8.710 million STRV, with:
  • Beet sugar increasing by 0.5% to 5.090 million STRV due to early planting.
  • Cane sugar decreasing by 6.9% to 3.620 million STRV, as cane yields return to trend levels.
    • Florida production drops by 10.0%.
    • Louisiana production increases by 4.8%.
    • Hawaii production is projected to be only 40,000 STRV, as its sugar mill will close at the end of the year.
• Total sugar use for 2016/17 is expected to increase by 0.3% to 12.275 million STRV, driven by domestic deliveries for food and beverage use (up 0.7% to 12.080 million STRV).
• Imports are projected to rise by 7.1% to 3.479 million STRV, with a significant 26.1% increase from Mexico due to the Export Limit.

U.S. Ending Stocks (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• Ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1.743 million STRV, up 124,000 STRV from the April estimate.
• The stocks-to-use ratio for 2015/16 is 14.2%, up from 13.3% in April.
• Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 1.657 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5%, a 5% decrease from the 2015/16 estimate.

Domestic Deliveries (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• Domestic deliveries for 2015/16 are estimated at 12.000 million STRV, up 45,000 STRV from the previous month.
• Deliveries for human consumption in 2015/16 are 4.586 million MT, with 4.331 million MT expected for consumption.
• Deliveries for non-food uses in 2016/17 are projected to increase by 10,000 STRV, mainly due to higher re-export product deliveries.

Key Information

Early Planting Impact

• Early planting of the 2016/17 sugarbeet crop has led to higher than average yields, contributing to increased production estimates for the 2015/16 balance sheet.
• The top four sugarbeet producing states (Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, Michigan) are 94% planted, slightly behind the previous year's pace.
• The stocks-to-use ratio for beet sugar is expected to be in line with historical averages for August-September 2017.

Mexico Sugar Production and Use (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• Mexico's sugar production for 2015/16 is estimated at 6.184 million MT, an increase of 199,000 MT from the April estimate.
• Cane harvested area in Mexico declined slightly, but yields and production increased.
• Mexico's sugar exports for 2016/17 are projected to rise by 35.1% to 1.515 million MT, with a 35.4% increase to the U.S. and Puerto Rico.
• Ending stocks for 2016/17 in Mexico are projected to be 1.301 million MT, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 29.6%, slightly lower than the 2015/16 ratio of 31.4%.

Trade and Policy Changes

• The WTO raw sugar TRQ was announced by USDA on May 5, 2016, affecting import quotas.
• IMMEX program changes in February 2016 have reduced U.S. re-export credits, leading to a decline in re-export imports.
• U.S. sugar imports for 2016/17 are projected to increase by 7.1% to 3.479 million STRV, with Mexico being the main contributor.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The report highlights that U.S. sugar production is expected to decline slightly in the 2016/17 season, with beet sugar increasing due to early planting and cane sugar decreasing as yields return to normal levels. Imports, particularly from Mexico, are projected to increase due to trade policy changes and Export Limit adjustments. Ending stocks are expected to rise in the 2015/16 season, but decline in 2016/17, reflecting changes in supply and demand dynamics. Mexico's production is also on the rise, with a notable increase in exports to the U.S., though domestic deliveries and IMMEX imports are affected by policy changes.