20160616-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2016.05.17_20页_1mb

Summary of Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook (June 2016)

Core Content

The report from the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar markets for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 fiscal years, including production, imports, exports, domestic deliveries, and ending stocks. It also discusses trends in caloric sweetener deliveries for the U.S. over the past two decades.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Market (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• 2015/16 Production: Estimated at 8.940 million STRV, an 8,000-STRV increase from the May estimate.
• Beet Sugar Production: Remains at 5.064 million STRV, unchanged from May.
• Cane Sugar Production: Increased to 3.877 million STRV, reflecting improved production in Florida, Texas, and other states.
• Imports: Increased by 182,000 STRV in 2015/16, mainly due to higher raw sugar TRQ and Export Limit for Mexico.
• Exports: Decreased by 35,000 STRV to 65,000 STRV in 2015/16 due to changes in the Mexican IMMEX program.
• Domestic Deliveries: Increased to 12.165 million STRV in 2015/16, with a slight increase in 2016/17 to 12.235 million STRV.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.939 million STRV in 2015/16 and projected to be 1.864 million STRV in 2016/17, primarily due to higher carryover from the previous year.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Increased to 15.21 percent in 2015/16 and projected to be 15.2 percent in 2016/17, though it is expected to drop to 13.5 percent after the July WASDE update.

Mexican Sugar Market (2015/16 and 2016/17)

• 2015/16 Production: Estimated at 6.184 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
• Imports: Increased slightly to 70,000 MT, mainly for domestic consumption.
• Domestic Deliveries: Estimated at 4.586 million MT, with 255,000 MT going to the IMMEX program.
• Exports: Increased to 1.213 million MT, with 51,000 MT going to the U.S. and 40,000 MT to other destinations.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.266 million MT, leading to a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 29.2 percent.
• 2016/17 Outlook:
  • Production: Projected at 6.100 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
  • Imports: Projected at 10,000 MT, all for domestic consumption.
  • Domestic Deliveries: Projected at 4.652 million MT, with 255,000 MT for IMMEX.
  • Exports: Projected at 1.515 million MT, with 1.505 million MT going to the U.S.
  • Ending Stocks: Projected at 1.209 million MT, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 27.5 percent.

Key Information

• Import Policy Changes: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) increased the raw sugar TRQ and Mexico's Export Limit, which affected U.S. sugar imports and the stocks-to-use ratio.
• IMMEX Program Impact: Changes in the Mexican IMMEX program have reduced the eligibility of U.S. sugar for certain benefits, affecting export volumes.
• Caloric Sweetener Deliveries:
  • In 2015, total caloric sweetener deliveries increased by 0.5 percent to 20.7 million tons.
  • Per capita deliveries declined slightly from 129.2 pounds in 2014 to 128.9 pounds in 2015.
  • Refined sugar deliveries increased by 1.0 percent, while HFCS deliveries decreased by 2.7 percent.
  • Honey and edible syrups showed growth, with honey increasing by 3.0 percent and edible syrups by 6.5 percent.
• Market Trends:
  • Total sweetener deliveries have remained relatively flat since 1999.
  • Per capita deliveries have trended downward since 1999, peaking at 151.6 pounds.
  • The integration of U.S. and Mexican sweetener markets under NAFTA and high corn prices have led to a shift in the market share between refined sugar and HFCS.
  • Recent trends suggest a moderation in per capita sweetener consumption, with growth in the past two years contrasting with long-term declines.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market for 2015/16 experienced increased supplies due to higher imports, which led to a rise in ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio. For 2016/17, the outlook remains stable, with a slight increase in domestic deliveries and a projected decline in the stocks-to-use ratio due to higher carryover from the previous year. Mexico's sugar market is also expected to have ample supplies in 2016/17, with continued reliance on the IMMEX program for exports. The long-term trends in caloric sweetener deliveries show a decline, but recent data suggest a convergence toward a new equilibrium.