20210716-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2021.07.16_20页_661kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexico sugar markets for the 2021/22 fiscal year, focusing on production, imports, exports, and stocks. It also highlights data revisions and market trends.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

Key Points

• 2021/22 Production: U.S. sugar production is forecasted to decrease by 302,000 STRV, with both beet and cane sugar output reduced.
• Imports: U.S. imports from Mexico are increased in 2021/22 due to the U.S./Mexico sugar suspension agreements.
• Ending Stocks: Ending stocks for 2021/22 are forecasted at 1.656 million STRV, up 203,000 STRV from the June estimate.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: The ratio is forecasted at 13.5%, indicating a healthy stock level.
• Data Revisions: For FY 2019/20 and FY 2020/21, high-tier sugar imports were revised downward due to errors in the source data, affecting total imports and supply.

Production Breakdown

• Beet Sugar: Forecasted at 5.033 million STRV for 2021/22, a decrease of 192,000 STRV.
  • Yield: Increased slightly to 29.76 short tons per acre.
  • Drought Conditions: Drought in North Dakota and Minnesota may impact yields, with ongoing monitoring required.
• Cane Sugar:
  • Florida: Forecasted at 2.015 million STRV, down 85,000 STRV from the June estimate.
  • Louisiana: Forecasted at 1.825 million STRV, down 25,000 STRV, with crop conditions slightly below the 5-year average.

Deliveries

• 2021/22 Deliveries: Unchanged from the June estimate, continuing a flat demand trend.
• October-May Deliveries: Down 1.1% from the same period last year, with non-reporter imports down 23.8%.
• Total Deliveries: For FY 2020/21, total deliveries are at 12.125 million STRV, slightly down from the prior year.

Inventory Trends

• Refiners' Melt: Reached a 10-year high in May.
• Raw Sugar Inventories: Increased slightly, close to the 10-year average.
• Refined Sugar Inventories: Increased in May.
• Sugarbeet Processors' Inventories: Decreased slightly in May, but still above the previous year's depressed level.

Price Trends

• U.S. Refined Cane Sugar Price: The spread between U.S. refined cane sugar (Northeast) and world prices increased to 24.88 cents per pound in June, which may impact the competitiveness of high-tier imports.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

Key Points

• 2020/21 Production: Forecasted at 5.708 million MT, slightly up from the June estimate.
• 2021/22 Production: Forecasted at 5.809 million MT, with no significant change from the June estimate.
• Exports: Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico are forecasted to increase by 414,000 MT in 2021/22, while exports to other countries are reduced by 427,000 MT.
• Ending Stocks: Ending stocks for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 are forecasted to increase slightly to 913,000 MT, equivalent to about 2.5 months of domestic consumption.

Production and Harvest

• Harvest Progress: As of July 10, 788,608 hectares have been harvested, higher than the same point last year but lower than 2018/19.
• Yield: Cumulative sugarcane yield is only slightly above last year's level.
• Extraction Rate: Cumulative extraction rate remains relatively comparable to 2017/18 and 2018/19, and well above 2019/20.
• Sugar Types:
  • Standard Sugar: Represents 60% of cumulative production as of July 10, up from 54% last year.
  • Low-Polarity Sugar: Forecasted at 728,914 MT, sufficient to meet U.S. export allocations.

Summary of Data Corrections

• High-Tier Imports: Corrections were made to high-tier imports in FY 2020 and FY 2021 due to errors in data labeling by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
• Impact of Corrections:
  • FY 2019/20 high-tier imports were revised down by 92,042 STRV.
  • FY 2020/21 high-tier imports were revised down by 20,000 STRV.
• Sources: USDA uses data from both the Bureau of the Census and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for high-tier imports.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market is expected to see a slight increase in ending stocks due to higher imports from Mexico, despite lower production. Mexico's production is expected to remain stable, with a focus on meeting export demands, particularly to the U.S. Market conditions, including drought and data revisions, are important factors influencing both production and trade dynamics.