20180119-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2018.01.19_13页_1mb

Summary of Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook (SSS-M-353, January 19, 2018)

Core Content

The January 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report provides an outlook for U.S. and Mexican sugar and sweeteners markets for the 2017/18 fiscal year. The report highlights changes in production, supply, use, and trade, with implications for ending stocks and market dynamics.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Total Sugar Supplies: Projected at 14.479 million STRV, up by 72,000 STRV from the previous month.
• Domestic Production: Increased to 9.312 million STRV, a 67,000-STRV rise from the December report.
  • Cane Sugar: Rose by 169,000 STRV to 4.055 million STRV, driven by strong harvests in Florida and Louisiana.
    • Florida: Projected at 2.075 million STRV, a 39,000-STRV increase.
    • Louisiana: Projected at 1.820 million STRV, a 130,000-STRV increase, which would be a record.
  • Beet Sugar: Declined by 102,000 STRV to 5.257 million STRV, due to lower sugarbeet production forecasts.
• Imports: Reduced by 10,000 STRV to 3.316 million STRV, primarily due to adjustments in trade under free trade agreements.
• Exports: Increased by 50,000 STRV to 100,000 STRV, especially to Mexico.
• Domestic Deliveries: Remain unchanged at 12.555 million STRV, with 12.400 million STRV for food and beverage use.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 1.824 million STRV, a 22,000-STRV increase from December, resulting in a 14.4 percent stocks-to-use ratio.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Total Sugar Supplies: Projected at 7.237 million MT, up by 40,000 MT from the previous month.
• Production: Remains at 6.100 million MT, unchanged from December.
• Imports: Increased by 40,000 MT to 135,000 MT, due to higher U.S. sugar exports and price disparities.
• Domestic Deliveries: Projected at 4.972 million MT, with 4.582 million MT for domestic consumption, up 1.5 percent from the previous year.
• Exports: Projected at 1.257 million MT, up by 40,000 MT from the previous month, with exports to the U.S. unchanged at 1.085 million MT.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 1.008 million MT, unchanged from December, resulting in a 22.0 percent stock-to-consumption ratio.

Key Market Trends

• Cane Sugar Sector: Inventory levels in November were 9.5 percent higher than the previous year, primarily due to increased imports in July 2017. This suggests a more abundant supply and less market constraint compared to the previous year.
• Beet Sugar Sector: Despite cold weather in December, average temperatures and precipitation levels were in line with historical norms. The sucrose extraction rate remains on track to reach historical highs.
• HFCS Market: Domestic deliveries of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) declined in 2016/17, with a 2.2 percent drop from 2015/16. HFCS-42 deliveries fell 5.4 percent, while HFCS-55 declined by 0.6 percent. These declines are consistent with a 10-year trend, with HFCS-42 experiencing a higher rate of decline.
• HFCS Exports: Continued to be a significant component, especially for HFCS-55, with the majority going to Mexico. However, export levels have remained relatively stable in recent years.

Conclusion

The 2017/18 U.S. sugar market is characterized by increased domestic production and imports, which have contributed to higher supplies and ending stocks. Mexico is also expected to see an increase in sugar supplies, driven by higher imports from the U.S. and increased production. The HFCS market continues to experience a decline in domestic use, with exports playing a more prominent role. These trends indicate a shift in market dynamics, with sugar and sweeteners playing a key role in international trade and domestic consumption patterns.

Key Information

• WASDE Report: Released on January 19, 2018, with the next report on February 14, 2018.
• Contact: Michael McConnell (coordinator), michael.mcconnell@ers.usda.gov; Verna Daniels (web publishing), vblake@ers.usda.gov.
• Resources:
  • Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook tables: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/sugar/
  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/SSS/
  • WASDE: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documented=1194
  • ERS e-mail notification service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/updates/
  • RSS feeds: http://www.ers.usda.gov/rss/

Additional Notes

• The report includes detailed tables and figures for U.S. and Mexican sugar production, use, and trade.
• The U.S. sugar market is influenced by trade agreements, production levels, and price differentials.
• The HFCS market is shaped by factors such as corn prices, ethanol production, and consumer preferences.