20160315-USDA-USDA_Sugar___Sweeteners_Outlook_2016.3.15_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook (March 2016)

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook for the 2015/16 marketing year, with projections for the U.S. and Mexico. The report outlines the supply, use, and trade dynamics of sugar, including production, imports, exports, and ending stocks, and includes long-term projections through 2025/26.

Key Projections for the U.S. Sugar Market (2015/16)

Total U.S. sugar supplies: Projected to total 13.836 million STRV, an increase of 57,000 STRV from the February projection.
Beginning stocks: Increased to 1.809 million STRV, up 41,000 STRV from the previous month due to revised 2014/15 inventories.
Sugar production: Expected to be 8.827 million STRV, a 22,000 STRV decline from February.
- Beet sugar: Projected at 5.016 million STRV, a 6,000 STRV increase.
- Cane sugar: Projected at 3.811 million STRV, a 27,000 STRV decline due to lower recovery rates in Florida.
Imports: Projected at 3.200 million STRV, up 72,000 STRV from the previous month due to TRQ reallocation, but down 33,000 STRV from Mexico due to suspension agreements.
Exports: Projected at 100,000 STRV, a 23,000 STRV decline due to changes in the Mexican IMMEX program.
Domestic deliveries: Projected at 12.090 million STRV, unchanged from February, with 11.955 million STRV for food and beverage use.
Ending stocks: Projected at 1.646 million STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5%.

Key Projections for the Mexican Sugar Market (2015/16)

Total sugar supplies: Projected at 6.937 million MT, down 20,000 MT from February.
Sugar production: Projected at 6.056 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
Imports: Projected at 70,000 MT, down 20,000 MT from February due to reduced U.S. exports.
Domestic deliveries: Projected at 4.681 million MT, unchanged from February.
Exports: Projected at 1.122 million MT, a 29,000 MT decline due to reduced shipments to the U.S.
Ending stocks: Projected at 1.134 million MT, resulting in a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 26.1%.

Impact of Suspension Agreements

The suspension agreements between the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Mexican government set Mexico's Export Limit at 100% of U.S. needs, based on the March WASDE projections.
These agreements have reduced the U.S. sugar shortfall under the TRQ, leading to an increase in TRQ imports.
Imports from Mexico are projected at 1.299 million STRV, in line with the suspension agreement terms.

Long-Term Projections (2016/17 to 2025/26)

U.S. sugar production is expected to increase until 2022/23, then decline slightly.
- Cane sugar production is projected to steadily increase due to rising sugarcane yields and area.
- Beet sugar production is expected to rise through 2019/20, then decline.
Imports are projected to steadily increase over the period as domestic production growth lags behind domestic deliveries.
Imports from Mexico are expected to follow the terms of the suspension agreements, with a peak in 2022/23 before being constrained by available export supplies.
Ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected to remain at 13.5% throughout the projection period.

Key Trends and Influences

U.S. sugar exports are expected to decline due to the termination of duty-free status under the IMMEX program.
Domestic deliveries are influenced by the increasing use of sugar for labeling and marketing, which may lead to a more segmented market.
Floridian sugar production is affected by weather conditions that have slowed harvests and reduced recovery rates.
Mexican sugar production is expected to remain stable, with sugarcane yields improving and harvested area gradually decreasing.
The suspension agreements play a critical role in shaping U.S. sugar import levels and Mexico's export capacity.

Additional Highlights

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is scheduled for release on April 18, 2016.
The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) sale for ethanol is projected to be 0 STRV for the 2015/16 marketing year.
High fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption is expected to rise, impacting the U.S. sugar market.
The refining margin and sugar prices are projected to follow a fluctuating trend, with refined beet sugar spot prices and sugarbeet prices increasing over time.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market for 2015/16 is characterized by a slight increase in total supplies, driven by higher beginning stocks and a modest rise in production. Imports from Mexico are expected to decrease due to suspension agreements, while TRQ imports are projected to increase. Exports are likely to decline due to the IMMEX program changes. Domestic deliveries remain stable, with cane sugar outperforming beet sugar in terms of production growth. Long-term projections suggest U.S. sugar production will peak in 2022/23 and then gradually decline, while imports will continue to rise to meet increasing domestic demand.