20230829-招银国际-呷哺呷哺-00520.HK-More_time_is_needed_to_reform_and_recover_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Xiabu Xiabu (520 HK) Equity Research Summary

Company and Performance

Xiabu Xiabu (XBXB) reported inline 1H23 financial results, with sales increasing 32% YoY to RMB 2.8 billion and a profit of RMB 2 million (previously losses of RMB 277 million). The net profit margin improved slightly to 0.1%. Gross profit margin was 62.6%, driven by better input costs but lower average selling prices. Key metrics include:

XBXB: 29% sales increase from 29% same-store sales growth (SOG) and 4% store count growth, seat turnover at 2.4x (up from 1.9x).
Cou Cou: Disappointing performance with 32% sales growth from 9% SOG and 26% store expansion, seat turnover at 2.1x.
Overall, new stores showed better seat turnover (2.7x vs. 1.9x), but Cou Cou struggled due to trade slowdown and product issues.

Analyst Recommendation

Maintain BUY with Target Price (TP) of HK$4.89, down from HK$7.65, based on 15x FY24E P/E.
Rationale: Slower-than-expected recovery, lower-than-anticipated operating leverage, and potential ASP drops to attract traffic, impacting gross margins.
FY23E and FY24E net profit forecasts revised down by 50% and 36%, respectively, due to challenges in both brands.

Financial Highlights

Revenue and Profit: 1H23 results were inline with estimates; FY23E revenue outlook trimmed due to slower expansion.
Key metrics:
- Revenue growth: 32% YoY in 1H23, revised down for full year.
- Net profit margin: Expected around 1.9% in FY23E, down from previous estimates.
Staff costs rose 24% YoY, offsetting minor efficiencies in rentals and depreciation expenses.

Valuation

Current forward P/E: 33x for FY23E, 12x for FY24E.
Peer comparison: Xiabu Xiabu is in-line with Buy recommendations for Greater China peers like Jiumaojiu, while comparisons to international brands show varying PEGs and Yields.
12-month price target: Represents a 24.2% upside from current price.

Risks and Disclosures

Important risk factors: Economic uncertainties, trade conditions affecting Cou Cou, potential margin pressures.
Disclosures include analyst certifications, no compensation ties to views, and information accuracy disclaimers.
Stock classification: BUY (potential >15% return), with risks such as market volatility and unguaranteed performance.

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