20210714-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2021.07.14_20页_977kb

Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for the U.S. and global production, usage, and price trends for major grains, including corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, for the marketing years 2020/21 and 2021/22. It highlights the impact of weather conditions, planting decisions, and global market dynamics on supply and demand.

Main Points and Key Information

U.S. Corn Outlook

• Production:

  • U.S. corn production for 2021/22 is raised by 175 million bushels to 15,165 million bushels due to an increase in harvested area, as reported by NASS's Acreage report.
  • Yields remain unchanged at 179.5 bushels per acre, based on historical trends and adjusted for July weather conditions.
  • Ending stocks for 2020/21 are reduced to 1,082 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from the previous month.
  • Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 1,432 million bushels, an increase of 75 million bushels.
  • Farm price for 2020/21 is raised by $0.05 to $4.40 per bushel, while the 2021/22 price is lowered by $0.10 to $5.60 per bushel.

• Exports:

  • U.S. corn exports for 2020/21 are unchanged at 2,850 million bushels, which would be a record.
  • For 2021/22, exports are raised by 50 million bushels to 2,500 million bushels, driven by lower production and exports from Brazil.
  • U.S. corn is expected to have a 40% share in global corn trade, the highest since 2017/18.

• Usage:

  • Feed and residual for 2020/21 is raised by 25 million bushels to 5,725 million bushels.
  • For 2021/22, feed and residual is also raised by 25 million bushels to 5,725 billion bushels.
  • Food, seed, and industrial use for 2021/22 is projected at 6,615 million bushels, with fuel ethanol use at 5,200 million bushels.

U.S. Sorghum Outlook

• Production:

  • Sorghum production for 2021/22 is lowered by 28 million bushels to 399 million bushels, due to reduced harvested area and lower yields.
  • Yields are projected at 69.0 bushels per acre, based on the 20-year median.

• Exports:

  • Sorghum exports for 2021/22 are reduced by 30 million bushels to 320 million bushels, though this still represents a 5% increase over the 2020/21 estimate.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 17 million bushels, down 3 million bushels from the previous month.

• Prices:

  • The season-average farm price for sorghum is projected at $6.00 per bushel, a $0.10 reduction from the previous month, due to the lower corn price outlook.

U.S. Barley Outlook

• Production:

  • Barley production for 2021/22 is projected at 114 million bushels, with national yields at 55.9 bushels per acre.
  • This is the lowest national average yield since 2002/03.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for 2020/21 are 72 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from the previous month.
  • Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 57 million bushels, a 22-million-bushel decrease from the previous month.

• Usage:

  • Feed and residual for 2020/21 is raised by 6 million bushels.
  • For 2021/22, feed and residual is reduced by 5 million bushels to 10 million bushels, and food, seed, and industrial use is reduced by 21 million bushels to 120 million bushels.

• Prices:

  • The season-average farm price for 2020/21 is $4.75 per bushel, unchanged from the previous month.
  • For 2021/22, the price is projected to rise to $5.95 per bushel, also unchanged from the previous month.

U.S. Oats Outlook

• Production:

  • Oats production for 2021/22 is reduced by 12 million bushels to 41 million bushels, due to lower yields and reduced harvested area.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for 2020/21 are 38 million bushels, down 1 million bushel from the previous month.
  • For 2021/22, ending stocks are reduced by 5 million bushels to 25 million bushels.

• Prices:

  • The season-average farm price for 2020/21 is $2.77 per bushel, up $0.02 from the previous month.
  • For 2021/22, the price remains at $3.60 per bushel, unchanged from the previous month.

International Outlook

• Global Coarse Grain Production (2021/22):

  • Total global production is projected to increase by 0.2 million tons to 1,496.8 million tons, with U.S. production rising by 2.6 million tons.
  • Corn production is up by 4.9 million tons globally, with higher output in Russia and lower in Brazil and Paraguay.
  • Barley production is down by 3.7 million tons, with reductions in the EU, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, and India, partially offset by higher production in Australia and Ukraine.
  • Sorghum and oats production are slightly down globally, with minor adjustments in foreign countries.

• Global Coarse Grain Use (2021/22):

  • Global use is projected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 1,488.9 million tons, with a significant drop in barley and corn feed use in the EU and barley and oats in Canada.
  • U.S. feed use increases, partially offsetting the global decline.

• Global Coarse Grain Stocks (2021/22):

  • Ending stocks are projected to decrease slightly to 318.2 million tons, with foreign stocks down 1.3 million tons and U.S. stocks increasing.

Key Trends and Impacts

• Weather Conditions:

  • Drought and heat in the Northern Plains and Western U.S. have reduced barley and sorghum yields.
  • Frosts in southern Brazil and Paraguay have further reduced corn yields.
  • Favorable weather in Russia and Australia has supported higher production in some areas.

• Market Dynamics:

  • U.S. corn exports are expected to rise due to lower Brazilian production.
  • China may source more sorghum from Argentina due to lower U.S. supplies.
  • U.S. barley exports are projected to decline, with China and India sourcing from other regions.

• Price Volatility:

  • Corn prices remain elevated by historical standards, with 2021/22 prices forecast at $5.60 per bushel, down $0.10 from the previous month.
  • Barley and sorghum prices are also high by historical standards, influenced by supply constraints.

• Usage Trends:

  • Livestock demand remains strong, despite higher cash prices.
  • Feed and residual use is expected to increase slightly in 2021/22, but global usage is projected to be 1% lower than the previous year.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The 2021/22 marketing year is expected to see higher U.S. corn production and lower sorghum, barley, and oats output, driven by weather conditions and planting decisions. U.S. corn exports are projected to increase due to Brazilian production declines, while barley and sorghum exports are expected to fall. Corn prices remain high, but 2021/22 prices are forecast to decrease slightly. Global coarse grain markets are tightening, with usage and stocks showing modest declines.