20170914-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2017.09.14_19页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of U.S. Feed Outlook (FDS-17i) - September 14, 2017

Core Content

The U.S. Feed Outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year provides an analysis of corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production, supply, and demand, along with international trade dynamics. The report highlights changes in crop yields, disappearance rates, and price projections, while also addressing global supply and demand shifts.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

Yield Increase: The U.S. corn yield is projected to increase by 0.4 bushels per acre to 169.9 bushels per acre.
Production: U.S. corn production is expected to reach 14,184 million bushels, the third-highest ever.
Supply: Supply is projected at 16,585 million bushels, up by 11.5 million bushels from last month.
Disappearance: Corn disappearance is lowered by 50 million bushels, primarily due to reduced use in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) sectors.
- FSI use: Slipped by 75 million bushels to 6,925 million bushels.
- HFCS use: Lowered by 30 million bushels to 460 million bushels.
- Starch use: Lowered by 20 million bushels to 235 million bushels.
- Ethanol use: Lowered by 25 million bushels to 5,475 million bushels due to reduced export prospects and a Brazilian tariff.
Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 25 million bushels to 5,475 million bushels, driven by a larger crop and lower prices.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 2,335 million bushels, up 61.5 million bushels from last month.
Price Projection: The average price received by farmers is lowered by 10 cents to $3.20 per bushel, the lowest since 2006.

U.S. Sorghum Outlook

Yield Increase: U.S. sorghum yield is projected up by 0.2 bushels per acre to 69.8 bushels per acre, increasing the projected harvest by 1.3 million bushels to 370.7 million bushels.
Supply: Projected at 399.4 million bushels, the lowest level since 2012, due to a 24.2 million bushel reduction in carryin.
Ending Stocks: Reduced to 29.4 million bushels.
Price Projection: The average price for the 2016/17 crop is raised by 10 cents to $2.80 to $2.90 per bushel, with a midpoint of $2.85 per bushel.

U.S. Barley and Oats Outlook

Barley Price: Projected to be $4.70 per bushel, down 70 cents from previous estimates due to declines in the malt barley market.
Oats Outlook: Global oats production is projected up 0.7 million tons to 23.0 million tons. For Canada, production is forecast 0.5 million tons higher to 3.7 million tons.
Barley and Oats Balance Sheets: No changes for barley and oats this month, but barley and oats supply remains stable.

International Outlook

Foreign Corn Output

Global Corn Production: Projected down 0.8 million tons.
Serbia: Corn output is expected to be just over half of its harvest from a year ago due to drought and high temperatures, limiting exports and reducing them by 1.5 million tons (60%) to 0.7 million tons.
Ukraine: Expected to gain export opportunities in the EU due to reduced Serbian output. Despite a 1.0-million-ton decline in production, Ukraine's exports are projected 0.5 million tons higher.
Brazil: Expected to increase corn exports by 1.0 million tons due to a record-high shipment pace, though storage capacities are strained.
Argentina: Corn planting is underway with excellent soil moisture. Area is projected up 0.3 million hectares to 5.2 million, and output up 2.0 million tons to 42.0 million tons.

World Barley Trade

Global Barley Output: Projected up 1.8 million tons to 141.9 million tons.
Russia: Barley production is forecast up 2.0 million tons to 20.5 million tons, with 80% already harvested.
Libya: Increased barley use for feeding and imports, expected to draw more supply from Ukraine, raising its export prospects by 0.2 million tons.
Canada: Barley production up 0.3 million tons to 7.3 million tons, but exports are projected 3.5 million tons lower than the previous forecast due to a reduction in the Argentina barley crop.

Chinese Demand for Sorghum

China: Remains the largest sorghum importer, with the U.S. as its primary supplier.
U.S. Sorghum Exports: Projected up 0.3 million tons to 6.1 million tons for the 2016/17 October-September trade year due to increased purchases.

Key Information

Domestic Trends: Increased corn production and supply, reduced disappearance, and lower prices due to higher stocks.
International Trade Shifts: Serbia's reduced corn output opens up EU market opportunities for Ukraine and Brazil.
Weather Impact: Drought and high temperatures in Serbia and Argentina affect crop yields and trade dynamics.
Market Demand: Reduced HFCS and starch demand due to lower sugar prices and adequate supplies, while ethanol use is affected by Brazil's tariff.
Price Projections: Corn prices for the 2017/18 crop are expected to range from $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel.