20241102-五矿期货-锰硅周报_关注_大选_及_大会_结果_短期仍以宽幅震荡为主_57页_4mb

Summary of Market Analysis: Manganin (MnSi) and Ferrosilicon (FeSi)

Date: November 2, 2024
Analyst: Chen Zhangying, Firm: GFQM (Guonong Futures)
Contact Info: F03098415 / Z0020771

1. Market Overview

The market remains in a broad-range oscillation, with prices reflecting signs of cyclic shifts in the face of tightly scheduled key events. Policy expectations and external factors (US election outcomes, National People’s Congress results) stand as the primary drivers in the short-term.

2. Manganin (MnSi)

Key Points:

• Price Evaluation:

  • MnSi has demonstrated resistance near October 25th's high but tested support after pulling back.
  • Oscillation: Within a broad range, influenced by tight supply/demand balance and policy uncertainty. Markets need to factor the upcoming National People’s Congress and US election impacts.

• Basics:

  • Demand Scenario:
    • Output Trends
      • Steel production decreased to 22422t/w (7.933t/d) from the prior week.
      • Iron ore output declined slightly to 23547t/d, still negative YoY (-3.9% YoY).
      • Manganin Supply continues to increase, but demand showed a turning point with cumulative output declining significantly (-16.98% YoY).
    • Inventory:
      • Explicit stock rose to 5.444 Mt, including 1.53Mt warehouse-tied, contributing to tighter structures.

• Policy/Cycle View:

  • Stating seasonal weakness in demand due to the ferroal slump, but noting ongoing supply increase. Any underperformance in demand may strain the market further.

3. Ferrosilicon (FeSi)

Key Points:

• Price Evaluation:

  • FeSi prices recovered after last week’s vigorously pumped market price (>8680Rp), hoping for consumption recovery.
  • White, yellow, and green letters (source: GFQM’s chart), but descriptions of the pattern: recovery pending better demand.

• Basics:

  • Output: Holds steady at 12.063 Mt/w, slightly increasing from the previous week.
  • Consumption:
    • Mg output increased to 58.085 Mt (during the period, prior was 55.8).
    • Import data shows record FeSi export volumes (4.344 Mt YoY for imports), partly reflecting overseas demand recovery.
    • Iron production still holds strong, indicating some support for non-ferrous applications.

• Timing Quality:

  • Despite gains, timing quality is weak. Large state steel output has waned forcibly, meaning market may suffer.

4. Final Comments

• Policy Events: When potential deals in the National Congress or US election outcomes unfold, both markets should face higher volatility. Investing remains riskier, especially far out contracts.
• Recommendations:
  • Short-term focus on high-grade scrap and managed rollovers for near-dated contracts.
  • Most participants evidence a cautious stance, recommending hedging instead of directional bets.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed are subject to change and are based on current market conditions, which could evolve rapidly. All information is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed complete or accurate. GFQM does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice.