美国战略与国际研究中心2024关键矿产和美国经济的未来研究报告英文版169页_29mb

Critical Minerals and the Future of the U.S. Economy Summary

Core Content

This edited volume by the Critical Minerals Security Program explores the strategic importance of critical minerals to the U.S. economy and national security. It outlines the current state of U.S. mineral supply chains, evaluates recent policy initiatives, and identifies key challenges and recommendations for strengthening the industry.

Main Viewpoints

• Critical Minerals are Essential for U.S. Competitiveness: The U.S. economy relies heavily on critical minerals for key industries such as semiconductors, defense, automotive, and renewable energy.
• High Import Reliance on China: The U.S. is 100% import reliant for 12 of 50 critical minerals and over 50% import reliant for 29 others. China dominates production and processing of many of these minerals.
• Geopolitical Risks: The concentration of mineral supply chains in adversarial countries like China poses significant threats to national and economic security.
• Bipartisan Priority: Strengthening mineral supply chains is a major priority for U.S. policymakers, evidenced by executive orders from both the Trump and Biden administrations.
• Need for Coordination: There is a lack of centralized coordination for critical minerals within the U.S. government, leading to fragmented efforts and inefficiencies.
• Policy Gaps: Despite recent legislative actions, there are still significant gaps in addressing upstream mining and mineral processing needs.

Key Information

Critical Minerals Overview

• The U.S. is 100% import reliant for 12 minerals and over 50% for 29 others.
• China is the top producer for 29 of the 50 critical minerals.
• China processes 40–90% of the global supply of rare earth elements, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and copper.

U.S. Policy Efforts

• Executive Order 13817 (2017): Aimed at improving management of critical minerals for economic and energy security.
• Executive Order 14017 (2021): Led to a review of U.S. critical minerals and material supply chain vulnerabilities.
• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): Provides incentives for clean energy, but has not adequately addressed critical mineral sourcing.
• CHIPS and Science Act: Focuses on semiconductor innovation and workforce development, but lacks emphasis on securing critical minerals.
• Defense Production Act (DPA): Used to support critical minerals for defense, but limited due to reliance on private investment.
• Minerals Security Partnership (MSP): A U.S. State Department initiative to enhance mineral security through international cooperation, but its effectiveness and sustainability remain uncertain.

Industry-Specific Needs

• Semiconductors: Require gallium, germanium, silicon, and other critical minerals. A 30% disruption in gallium supply could reduce U.S. GDP by 2.1%.
• Defense Industry: Relies on minerals for advanced weapons and aerospace systems. U.S. defense industrial base faces capacity and surge capability challenges.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Demand significantly more critical minerals than traditional vehicles. The U.S. needs to secure reliable and responsible mineral sources.
• Renewable Energy: Wind and solar technologies depend on rare earth elements and polysilicon, both of which are heavily controlled by China.

Challenges and Recommendations

Domestic Permitting

• The average time to build a mine in the U.S. is 29 years, the second-longest globally.
• There are up to 30 permits required for a single mine, many of which are redundant.
• Recommendation: Modernize the permitting process to expedite domestic mining development.

Midstream Processing

• China dominates mineral processing, creating strategic vulnerabilities.
• Recommendation: Develop domestic midstream processing capacity to reduce reliance on foreign processing.

International Engagement

• The U.S. needs a strategy to diversify mineral sources and reduce dependence on China.
• Recommendation: Use commercial diplomacy, strategic reserves, and international partnerships to secure mineral supply chains.

Deep Sea Mining

• Deep sea nodules contain valuable minerals like manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt.
• Recommendation: Expand tax incentives, support research, and fund demonstration projects to explore deep sea mining potential.

Responsible Mining

• The mining industry faces reputational challenges due to environmental and social issues.
• Recommendation: Implement permitting reforms that promote responsible mining practices and align with U.S. values.

Government Coordination

• There is no centralized agency to coordinate U.S. mining efforts.
• Recommendation: Establish a unified strategy and coordination mechanism across 15 government departments and agencies.

Conclusion

The book concludes that the U.S. must take a comprehensive and coordinated approach to secure its critical minerals supply chains. It emphasizes the need for policy reform, international cooperation, and responsible mining practices to ensure long-term economic and national security.

Contributors and Editors

• Editors: Gracelin Baskaran, Duncan Wood
• Contributors: Morgan Bazilian, Jane Nakano, Rohitesh Dhawan, Meredith Schwartz, Frank Fannon, Seaver Wang, Alexandra Helfgott, Kellee Wicker, Adam Johnson, Gregory Wischer, Joseph Majkut, Matthew D. Zolnowski, Chris Michienzi

Additional Information

• ISBN: PB: 979-8-7651-9836-0, ePub: 979-8-7651-9837-7, ePDF: 979-8-7651-9838-4
• Publisher: Bloomsbury Academic and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
• Publication Year: 2025
• Copyright: © 2025 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies

References

• Figures 1, 2, and 3 are derived from CSIS and IEA materials, with CSIS holding sole responsibility.
• The book includes endnotes and further reading for detailed analysis.