【美国战略与国际研究中心】2024关键矿产和美国经济的未来研究报告_169页_29mb

Critical Minerals and the Future of the U.S. Economy Summary

Core Content

This document, Critical Minerals and the Future of the U.S. Economy, is an edited volume by the Critical Minerals Security Program, offering a comprehensive analysis of the role of critical minerals in the U.S. economy and the challenges and opportunities in securing their supply chains. It explores the strategic importance of these minerals across key industries and evaluates recent U.S. policy efforts to address supply chain vulnerabilities.

Main Viewpoints

• Critical Minerals are Vital for U.S. Competitiveness: The U.S. economy relies heavily on critical minerals for its technological, energy, and defense sectors. These minerals are essential for everything from semiconductors to electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy systems.
• High Reliance on China: The U.S. is 100% import reliant for 12 of the 50 critical minerals identified by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and over 50% import reliant for another 29. China is the top producer for 29 of these minerals and dominates processing and refining, posing a significant national security risk.
• Bipartisan Priority: Reducing reliance on China and building resilient supply chains is a bipartisan priority in Washington. This is reflected in past and present administrations' actions, including the 2017 and 2021 executive orders.
• Policy Gaps and Challenges: Despite recent legislative efforts like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), CHIPS and Science Act, and the Defense Production Act (DPA), the U.S. still faces significant challenges in securing its mineral supply chains, including inefficiencies in domestic mine permitting and a lack of centralized coordination.
• Need for Strategic Reform: The book outlines a range of recommendations for improving U.S. mineral security, including modernizing permitting processes, building domestic midstream processing capacity, engaging in minerals diplomacy, exploring deep sea mining, and promoting responsible mining practices.

Key Information

Section 1: Crucial Industries Rely on Critical Minerals to Remain Competitive

• Semiconductors: Essential for modern technologies, they require minerals like gallium, germanium, and silicon. The U.S. is heavily dependent on foreign sources, particularly China, for these materials. A 30% disruption in gallium supply could lead to a $602 billion economic loss.
• Defense Industry: Minerals are foundational for defense systems, including military weapons, aerospace, and electronics. China's rapid investment in advanced weapons systems threatens U.S. military readiness and supply chain security.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): The EV industry is a major driver of innovation and economic growth. EVs require significantly more critical minerals than traditional vehicles (up to six times more). The U.S. needs to secure reliable and responsible mineral sources to support its EV industry.
• Renewable Energy: Wind and solar power are crucial for the U.S. energy transition. These technologies depend heavily on rare earth elements and polysilicon, both of which are dominated by China in supply chains.

Section 2: Progress Under the Biden Administration

• Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): A major climate initiative that provides incentives for clean energy, but it has not adequately addressed critical minerals sourcing. The U.S. needs to revise its mineral-related provisions to better support industry and national security.
• CHIPS and Science Act: Focused on semiconductor innovation, but lacks a clear emphasis on securing critical minerals. Congress should explicitly address mineral needs for semiconductors.
• Defense Production Act (DPA): Used to secure critical minerals for the defense industry. However, due to market volatility, the DPA is a crucial tool for financing critical minerals projects.
• Minerals Security Partnership (MSP): A U.S. State Department initiative aimed at international cooperation on minerals security. It has supported over 30 global mineral projects, but its effectiveness and long-term viability remain uncertain.

Section 3: Addressing Challenges and Outstanding Questions

• Domestic Permitting: The process for building mines in the U.S. is slow, with an average of 29 years required. This hinders the development of domestic mineral resources and needs reform.
• Midstream Processing: China dominates the processing and refining of critical minerals, creating strategic vulnerabilities. The U.S. must invest in domestic midstream capacity to reduce reliance.
• Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. needs a strategic approach to engage with international partners, including financing minerals security, leveraging soft power, and using incentives and sanctions to align market activities with U.S. interests.
• Deep Sea Mining: Offers potential for new mineral sources, but lacks clear international regulations and environmental guidelines. The U.S. should explore opportunities in this emerging field.
• Responsible Mining: The U.S. must promote and enforce responsible mining practices to mitigate environmental and social risks. This includes reforming permitting processes to favor sustainable and ethical projects.
• Government Coordination: There is no centralized agency to coordinate U.S. critical minerals efforts, leading to fragmented policies and limited effectiveness. Strengthening interagency collaboration is essential.

Conclusion

The book concludes that the U.S. must take a more coordinated and strategic approach to securing its critical minerals supply chains. It emphasizes the need for modernizing domestic policies, improving international engagement, and investing in sustainable and secure mineral sources to maintain economic and national security in the face of growing global demand and geopolitical tensions.

Recommendations

• Modernize domestic mine permitting to accelerate mineral production.
• Build domestic midstream processing and refining capacity.
• Develop a strategy for minerals diplomacy with emerging market partners.
• Explore deep sea mining and support related research and development.
• Promote responsible mining practices to ensure sustainability and ethical standards.
• Create a centralized government agency to coordinate critical minerals efforts.

About the Editors and Contributors

• Editors: Gracelin Baskaran and Duncan Wood.
• Contributors: A range of experts including Morgan Bazilian, Jane Nakano, Rohitesh Dhawan, Meredith Schwartz, Frank Fannon, Seaver Wang, Alexandra Helfgott, Kellee Wicker, Adam Johnson, Gregory Wischer, Joseph Majkut, Matthew D. Zolnowski, and Chris Michienzi.

Endnotes

The book includes endnotes referencing various sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and other relevant studies and reports.