2017全球手机市场趋势（英文版）_103页_7mb

Global Mobile Trends 2017 Summary

Core Content

• Mobile Subscribers Reach 5 Billion: As of Q2 2017, two-thirds of the global population are mobile subscribers, making mobile the most widely used technology. However, the rate of growth is slowing, with it taking four years to reach 5 billion and longer to reach 6 billion.
• 4G Dominates Over 5G in the Near Future: Despite the hype around 5G, 4G will dominate in volume terms for at least the next 10 years. Between 2016 and 2025, 3.6 billion more 4G users are expected than 5G users.
• Emerging Markets Drive Growth: India, Indonesia, and Brazil will account for 35% of the 4G increase, highlighting a shift in internet usage towards developing regions.
• IoT and 5G Require Network Evolution: The shift towards IoT and 5G necessitates a paradigm change in networks, moving from centralised to decentralised models with mini clouds, mesh networking, and lower latency capabilities.

Main Points

1. Mobile Subscribers

• 5 billion people globally use mobile.
• 620 million new subscribers expected by 2020.
• Asia will account for 60% of new mobile subscribers, with Africa growing the fastest proportionally.

2. 4G and 5G Trends

• 4G will account for two-thirds of the global mobile user base by 2025.
• 5G is expected to be a complement to 4G, not a replacement, due to similar use cases and slower adoption.
• Early 5G deployments will focus on dense urban areas using small cells, with China, Japan, and South Korea leading the way.

3. IoT and Network Evolution

• IoT is expanding the scale of connectedness, with over 25,000 million devices expected to be connected by 2020.
• Networks must shift to an open paradigm, including edge computing and network slicing, to meet IoT and 5G demands.

4. Convergence of Telecoms and Media

• Convergence is happening, but the path to value creation is unclear.
• Telco-media conglomerates are a possibility, with options like joint ventures, bundling, and licensing being explored.

5. Internet Access Gap

• Half the world’s population is not on the internet, mostly in lower income developing countries.
• The GSMA Mobile Connectivity Index measures barriers to mobile internet access, including infrastructure, affordability, consumer readiness, and content relevance.

6. 5G Revenue Potential

• 5G is expected to generate incremental revenue for enterprise applications, not just consumer use cases.
• The value proposition of 5G depends on its perceived differentiation from LTE.

Key Information

• Smartphone Growth: Smartphones account for over half of global mobile connections, with growth driven by developing markets like India, China, and Africa.
• Smart Speakers and Voice: Voice is making a comeback through smart speakers and personal assistants, with over 20% of Google searches in the US now via voice.
• Challenges for VR: VR faces significant hurdles, including content creation, latency, and affordability.
• Network Virtualisation: The shift to NFV (Network Function Virtualisation) is changing the value of hardware and software in mobile networks, offering cost efficiency and scalability.
• Satellite and Alternative Connectivity: Satellite technology, especially from SpaceX and OneWeb, is re-emerging as a way to reach rural and unconnected populations, with potential applications in IoT and emerging market connectivity.
• Global Revenue Outlook: Mobile revenue growth is expected to be modest, with a CAGR of 1-2% globally from 2016 to 2020, driven by new subscribers and data monetisation.

Conclusion

The 2017 Global Mobile Trends report highlights the continued dominance of mobile technology, with 4G expected to remain the backbone of connectivity for the foreseeable future. While 5G and IoT represent significant future opportunities, their success depends on addressing technical, economic, and regulatory challenges. The report also underscores the importance of affordability, local content, and network evolution in bridging the digital divide and enabling broader access to mobile internet.