牛津经济研究院-新冠病毒对美国旅游经济的影响（英文）-2020.4.15-14页_227kb

Summary of the Impact of COVID-19 on the United States Travel Economy

Core Content

The document outlines the economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on the US travel industry in 2020, analyzing GDP, employment, and tax losses, as well as the potential benefits of mitigating the downturn through targeted measures. It highlights the severity of the impact and compares it to historical events like 9/11.

Main Findings

• Travel Industry Losses:
  The travel industry is projected to experience a 45% decline in spending for the entire year of 2020.

  • Revenue Drop: An 81% drop in revenue is expected in the first two months, with continued losses throughout the year.
  • Total Economic Loss: A $519 billion decline in travel spending is expected, which translates into a $1.2 trillion total economic loss.

• GDP Impact:
  The travel industry losses will result in a cumulative GDP impact of $651 billion in 2020.

  • This is 45% of the travel industry's economic value from the previous year.
  • The US economy is projected to enter a protracted recession due to travel downturns, likely lasting at least two quarters, with the lowest point in Q2 2020.

• Employment Impact:

  • The travel industry is expected to lose 6.9 million direct jobs by the end of April.
  • Total travel-supported jobs lost: 8.0 million by the end of April.
  • This would push the unemployment rate to 8.4% in Q2, potentially reaching 15% when considering all sectors.
  • Job losses will continue through the end of the year, with 2.9 million jobs still lost in December.

• Tax Losses:

  • A $80.3 billion decline in taxes is expected due to travel declines in 2020.
  • This includes $43.4 billion in federal, $22.7 billion in state, and $14.3 billion in local taxes.

• International Market Impact:

  • International visits to the US will decline by 54% in 2020, with 43 million fewer travelers.
  • The largest declines are expected from Asia and Europe.
  • International visitor spending will drop by $116 billion, representing a 60% decline from normal levels.

• "Flattening the Curve" Scenario:

  • A mitigated downturn starting in June could reduce the total travel spending loss from $519 billion to $401 billion, resulting in a net gain of $117 billion.
  • This would also lead to a $150 billion gain in GDP and 1.3 million jobs restored by the end of the year.
  • Key Mitigating Efforts:
    • Gradual reopening of travel businesses by region.
    • Enhanced traveler safety measures.
    • Marketing campaigns targeting low-risk US residents.

• Comparisons to 9/11:

  • The impact of the travel downturn in 2020 is estimated to be 9 times greater than that of 9/11 in terms of economic loss.
  • The loss in travel spending is $519 billion, compared to $60 billion from 9/11.

Key Information

• Total Travel Revenue Loss: $519 billion in 2020.

• Total Economic Loss: $1.2 trillion.

• Total Job Losses: 8.0 million by the end of April.

• Total Tax Losses: $80.3 billion.

• Mitigated Downturn Benefits:

  • $117 billion in spending gains.
  • $150 billion in GDP gains.
  • 1.3 million jobs restored.
  • $18.1 billion in tax gains.

• Regional Impact:

  • The largest declines are expected in air transportation, lodging, and food services.
  • Air transportation alone accounts for $97 billion in lost revenue.
  • Lodging contributes $112 billion in lost revenue.
  • Food services is the largest contributor, with $128 billion in lost revenue.

Conclusion

The Coronavirus pandemic has had a severe and widespread impact on the US travel economy, resulting in significant GDP, employment, and tax losses. However, a mitigated downturn through targeted measures could reduce the economic impact and stimulate recovery. The "flattening the curve" approach has the potential to save billions in economic output and restore millions of jobs.