UNCTAD-新冠疫情对全球旅游业造成影响评估（英文）-2020.6-27页_1mb

Summary of "COVID-19 and Tourism: Assessing the Economic Consequences"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global tourism sector, using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP. It outlines the impact on GDP, employment, and trade, and highlights the vulnerability of countries heavily dependent on tourism.

Main Views

• Tourism's Economic Significance: Tourism is a major contributor to the global economy, accounting for 29% of the world's services exports and supporting approximately 300 million jobs globally.
• Impact of the Pandemic: The pandemic caused an unprecedented halt in international travel, significantly affecting the tourism industry and leading to severe economic repercussions.
• Variation in Impact: The economic impact varies across countries depending on their level of dependence on tourism, with small island developing states (SIDS) being particularly vulnerable.
• Modeling Approach: The study uses the GTAP model to simulate the effects of different levels of tourism reduction, considering both direct and indirect impacts through intersectoral linkages.
• Scenario Analysis: Three scenarios are analyzed based on the duration of the tourism shutdown: Moderate, Intermediate, and Dramatic, with varying levels of GDP loss and employment impact.

Key Information

Global Tourism Impact

• The pandemic led to a near-total suspension of international tourism, with many countries imposing travel restrictions.
• In the Moderate scenario, which assumes a 1/3 reduction in annual inbound tourism expenditure, global GDP losses are estimated at $1.17 trillion (1.5% of global GDP).
• In the Intermediate scenario, with a 2/3 reduction, global GDP losses increase to $2.22 trillion (2.8% of global GDP).
• In the Dramatic scenario, assuming a complete halt in tourism, global GDP losses are estimated at $3.3 trillion (4.2% of global GDP).

Country-Specific Impacts

• Jamaica: GDP loss of 11% in the Moderate scenario, with tourism accounting for 20% of GDP.
• Thailand: GDP loss of 9% in the Moderate scenario, with a significant impact on the tourism sector.
• Croatia, Portugal, and Dominican Republic: All face GDP losses of 9%, 8%, and 6% respectively in the Moderate scenario.
• USA and China: The world's largest trading economies, facing the largest GDP declines with losses of $187 billion and $104 billion respectively in the Moderate scenario.
• SIDS: These countries are particularly vulnerable due to their small domestic markets, limited export diversification, and remoteness.

Sectoral Impacts

• The tourism sector has indirect effects on other sectors such as construction, trade, and financial services.
• In the Moderate scenario, sectors like "Recreational and other service" and "Accommodation, Food and services" experience significant declines, with some sectors losing over 55% of their output.
• The impact is amplified due to intersectoral linkages, with the multiplier effect causing GDP losses to be 2-3 times the direct loss from tourism revenue.

Employment and Wage Effects

• The pandemic led to a dramatic rise in unemployment, especially among unskilled workers, who are more vulnerable to job losses.
• In the Moderate scenario, skilled workers experience wage drops ranging from -9% to -12% in countries like Croatia, Jamaica, and Thailand.
• In the worst-case scenario, these wage drops are expected to be two to three times higher.
• Unskilled workers, particularly women and youth, are disproportionately affected by job losses in the tourism sector.

Policy Recommendations

• The report emphasizes the need for governments to implement policies that support the tourism sector and facilitate recovery.
• It suggests that policy measures should focus on mitigating the economic impact on developing and least-developed countries, which are more reliant on tourism for income and employment.

Conclusion

The document concludes that the tourism sector is highly susceptible to the economic shocks caused by the pandemic, and the effects are likely to be long-lasting. It highlights the importance of policy interventions to support affected economies and workers, especially in the most tourism-dependent countries.