2021-12-23-牛津经济研究院-冠状病毒疾病对红肉加工业的影响（英）_68页_1mb

Summary of the COVID-19 Impact on Australia's Red Meat Processing Industry

1. Executive Summary

The Australian red meat processing industry demonstrated resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing a $326 million revenue loss during April–September 2020 (equivalent to 3.1% of expected revenue). This loss resulted from a combination of pandemic-related disruptions and concurrent restocking effects, which collectively accounted for the majority of revenue declines. China remained a key export market despite trade tensions and import restrictions, but diversification gained prominence as a risk mitigation strategy. Supply chains held up remarkably well, aided by industry flexibility, government cooperation, and prior pandemic preparedness measures.

2. Key Findings

2.1. International Trade Impacts

• Australia’s red meat exports fell by 13.1% year-on-year in April–September 2020, but concurrent restocking likely explained much of this decline.
• China, a primary market, imposed import restrictions and banned exports from several abattoirs, capitalizing on geopolitical tensions.
• Competitors like Brazil performed strongly due to restocking, while the U.S. and Argentina faced significant disruptions from pandemic-related shutdowns.
• Export diversification, particularly in Asia, is critical but logistically challenging.

2.2. Effects on Competitors

• Brazil and Argentina, despite pandemic pressures, offset some of Australia's losses by increasing exports, especially to China.
• The U.S. meat industry faced severe disruptions due to shutdowns and labor shortages, contrasting with Australia’s relative stability.

2.3. Domestic Impacts

• Labor shortages, reliance on foreign workers, and domestic demand fluctuations were key challenges.
• Supply chains faced temporary disruptions, but the industry adapted swiftly with health protocols and logistics adjustments.

2.4. Quantitative Effects

• Direct revenue losses to processors totaled $326 million (attributable to the pandemic).
• Total economic impacts, including employment and GVA losses, reached $390 million and 2,800 jobs across the Australian economy.
• Residual effects rippled through supply chains, impacting agriculture and manufacturing.

3. Policy Implications

• Strengthen disaster preparedness and resilience frameworks for the industry.
• Improve workforce strategies, including immigration programs to counter labor shortages and automation to reduce reliance on imports.
• Enhance cooperation with governments and trading partners (e.g., China) and support regional policies.
• Foster export diversification to mitigate risks in over-reliance on China.

4. Conclusion

Australia’s red meat processing sector endured the pandemic relatively well, highlighting its reliability but exposing vulnerabilities such as labor scarcity and supply chain fragility. Opportunities for growth lie in diversifying markets, promoting automation, and reinforcing international supply chain resilience. Addressing these challenges will shape the industry’s sustainability and competitiveness post-COVID.