2021-10-25-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_ECB_Watch_–_A_controversial_debate_on_inflation_looms_4页_227kb

ECB Inflation Debate and Policy Outlook

• Meeting Impact: No policy changes expected from October ECB meeting; key decisions tied to December macroeconomic projections. The meeting sets the tone for a controversial debate on inflation.
• Inflation Forecasts: Short-term inflation expected to rise to near 4% in Q4 due to surge in energy prices (electricity, natural gas, oil), prompting upward revisions. Medium-term outlook uncertain; inflation likely to fall below 2% H2 2022 with limited evidence of second-round effects.
• Policy Adjustments: ECB likely to taper PEPP purchases by March 2022 and increase APP purchases to €40bn/month in December, partially offsetting tightening. However, flexibility in APP increase is debated amid higher inflation pressures and concerns from hawkish council members.
• Key Uncertainties: Labour shortages and wage growth remain weak, not driving inflation concerns; consumer inflation expectations and uncertainty are closely monitored. Council divergence highlights risks, with most members leaning dovish, delaying decisions if energy prices fall and supply chain issues ease.

Short-term policy stance remains accommodative, with potential delays in major decisions to March to assess inflation persistence.