牛津经济研究院-冠状病毒疾病对红肉加工业的影响（英）-2021.12-68页_1mb

Summary of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Red Meat Processing Industry

Core Content

This report analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia's red meat processing industry, focusing on economic and policy implications. It provides quantitative and qualitative insights into how the pandemic affected supply chains, international trade, and domestic operations, as well as the competitive landscape with other countries such as the United States, Argentina, New Zealand, and Brazil.

The report highlights the resilience of the Australian red meat industry during the pandemic, despite significant challenges, and identifies key issues that will shape the industry's future, including pandemic preparedness, trade relationships with China, export diversification, workforce sustainability, and policy coordination.

Main Objectives

The project aimed to:

• Provide quantitative estimates of the disruption to the red meat processing supply chain.
• Offer insights into the evolving global trade in red meat, particularly Australia-China trade.
• Obtain stakeholder and industry viewpoints.
• Map out policy implications based on the findings.

Additionally, the project examined the impact of the pandemic on Australia's competitors, helping to understand the changing competitive landscape.

Key Findings

1. Economic Impact

• The Australian red meat processing industry experienced a $326 million revenue loss from 1 April to 30 September 2020, equivalent to 3.1% of expected revenue.
• When considering supply chain disruptions and reduced consumer spending due to job losses, the total economic impact was $390 million in GVA terms and 2,800 job losses.
• The industry maintained reliable supply to both domestic and international markets, showcasing resilience and adaptability.

2. International Trade Impacts

• China was the largest red meat export market for Australia, accounting for 26% of total exports in 2019.
• China's bans on certain Australian abattoirs in May 2020 contributed significantly to the decline in exports.
• United States, Japan, and South Korea also saw reduced demand for Australian red meat, with Indonesia being the second-largest market but characterized by lower value products.
• Export volumes dropped by 13.1% in April-September 2020 compared to the previous year.

3. Competitive Landscape

• Australia's competitors, such as the United States and Argentina, experienced more severe disruptions to their red meat exports.
• New Zealand also performed well, while Brazil showed a remarkable recovery, possibly capitalizing on tensions in the China–Australia relationship.

4. Domestic and Policy Impacts

• Workforce issues emerged as a major concern, particularly the reliance on imported labor and the impact of lockdowns on processing capacity.
• Future labor supply remains a critical issue, with calls for improved rural policy and cooperation between governments and industry.
• Post-pandemic policy needs to focus on disaster preparedness, workforce sustainability, and export diversification.

5. Strategic Implications

• The "China plus" policy is likely to emerge, where China remains a key market, but diversification is promoted to mitigate risks.
• Export diversification is crucial for long-term industry sustainability, especially as China's market may become more politically sensitive.
• Coordination between industry and government is essential to address workforce shortages, logistical challenges, and policy responses to future crises.

Methodology

The research employed two complementary approaches:

• Top-down modeling: Utilized national data sources such as the ABS, ABARES, and MLA to analyze trends in industry performance and economic ripple effects.
• Bottom-up modeling: Included 12 interviews with processors, industry peak bodies, and Federal government representatives from October 2020 to January 2021, providing qualitative insights into the industry's direct experiences and perceptions of the pandemic.

The analysis period was defined as 1 April to 30 September 2020, capturing the initial shock of the pandemic in Australia and the most significant disruptions to the red meat processing industry.

Conclusion

The Australian red meat processing industry demonstrated remarkable resilience during the pandemic, maintaining revenues and supply chain integrity despite challenges. However, the long-term implications include the need for better disaster preparedness, policy coordination, and export diversification to ensure industry sustainability. The relationship with China remains critical, but risk mitigation strategies are likely to promote a more balanced trade approach. The workforce issue is also a priority, with governments and industry needing to collaborate on labor policy and migration incentives to secure the future viability of the sector.

Key Issues for the Future

1. Pandemic and disaster preparedness
2. Trade relationship with China
3. Export diversification
4. Workforce sustainability
5. Broader industry and regional policy coordination

These issues are interlinked and require strategic, long-term planning and cooperative efforts between industry and government to ensure resilience and growth in the post-pandemic era.