20140402-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_569kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 02 Apr 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of recent news in the regional oil and gas sector, including company updates, price movements, and analyst reports. It covers major developments in Asia, including China, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as international companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total. It also includes valuation data and market performance indicators for various oil and gas firms.
Key News Highlights
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ExxonMobil stated that achieving an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is unrealistic, as it would require a carbon credit price of USD200/tonne and increase household costs significantly. However, the company acknowledges the role of CO2 in global warming.
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Taiwan's CPC has made a tender offer to purchase 22,000 tonnes of LPG (propane and butane) for May delivery.
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India has closed its first major potash contract for the fiscal year 2014-2015 with Uralkali for MOP at USD322/tonne CFR, which is 13-25% cheaper than the previous contract.
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Roc Oil has entered into a farm-in agreement with Petronas to acquire a 50% stake in the PSC covering D35, D21, and J4 fields in Malaysia. The deal includes an initial payment of USD25m and USD80m to be paid in two phases, with a gross cost of USD70m and capex up to USD250m for the first redevelopment phase.
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SapuraKencana Drilling has secured a USD108m contract to provide one rig to Total for a West Africa project, with an implied dayrate of USD296,000. The company also extended its contract with Chevron by two years, valued at USD164m, with an implied dayrate of USD224,700.
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Uzma has been awarded a USD100m risk-service contract by Petronas for work at Tanjong Bram Field in Sarawak, with the contract spanning over nine years.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (01 Apr 2014)
| Commodity/Instrument | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Absolute Change | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 99.6 | -1.98 | -1.9% | 0.4% | -2.2% |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 105.62 | -2.14 | -2.0% | -1.3% | -2.8% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 104.17 | -0.46 | -0.4% | 0.5% | -1.0% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 105.83 | -0.55 | -0.5% | 0.5% | -2.8% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.25 | -0.00 | -2.8% | -3.8% | -6.6% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 113.41 | -3.26 | -2.8% | -2.7% | -2.9% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 121.99 | -0.62 | -0.5% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 603.24 | -4.89 | -0.8% | -0.4% | -0.9% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,281.69 | -2.32 | -0.2% | -2.2% | -3.4% |
| USD-JPY | USDJPY CURNCY | Fx rate | 103.64 | 0.41 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| USD-EUR | USDEUR CURNCY | Fx rate | 0.72 | -0.00 | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.21 | -0.01 | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,532.61 | 74.95 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,885.52 | 13.18 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 30Y T-Bill | USGG30YR INDEX | Yield | 3.61 | 0.05 | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
Analyst Reports
NewOcean Energy (342 HK)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD8.88
- Comment: The stock has pulled back 30% from recent highs, but long-term prospects are improving. FY14 results are stable, and FY15 earnings are revised up by 11%. The company is entering the Auto LNG market, which is expected to prompt a re-rating.
- Valuation: Trading at 8.0x 2014E earnings, target is 12.5x.
Bumi Armada (BAD MK)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR5.00
- Comment: Secured an LOI from Eni for an FPSO job in Angola, with a bare-boat charter worth USD2.9b over 12 years. Conversion works will take 31 months, with a USD1.5b capex plan.
- Valuation: Trading at 1.6x 2013E P/E, target is 2.7x.
Petron Corp (PCOR PM)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: PHP15.90
- Comment: FY13 reported profit increased by 187% to PHP5.1b, though 4Q13 earnings declined by 39% YoY. Full commercial operations of RMP-2 are on track for 2015.
- Valuation: Trading at 1.2x 2013E P/E, target is 5.0x.
SapuraKencana Petroleum (SAKP MK)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR5.30
- Comment: FY14 results met expectations, accounting for 103% of forecasts. Newfield Malaysia will drive group earnings, with +MYR116m in FY15 and +MYR447m in FY16.
- Valuation: Trading at 1.4x 2013E P/E, target is 3.3x.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 01-Apr | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD b | 90D T/O USD m | P/E (2013E) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.56 | NR | 221.6 | 95.4 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.00 | NR | 97.2 | 114.2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 11.68 | NR | 67.2 | 118.6 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 17.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 323.80 | NR | 46.2 | 18.1 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 942.60 | NR | 50.8 | 50.8 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 344.95 | 443.00 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 446.90 | NR | 5.4 | 9.1 | 17.2 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 303.50 | NR | 1.7 | 5.9 | 20.5 | -11.0 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 11.82 | 15.90 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 29.6 | 33.8 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 4.97 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 72.25 | 87.00 | 10.1 | 25.8 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 14.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 302.00 | 395.00 | 26.7 | 34.3 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 21.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 53.00 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 01-Apr | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD b | 90D T/O USD m | P/E (2013E) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.94 | 5.00 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 26.8 | 24.5 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.63 | 3.90 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 45.0 | 30.8 | 28.9 | 27.1 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 0.9 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | buy | 3.79 | 4.20 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 25.6 | 34.8 | 18.5 | 21.4 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 24.20 | 20.20 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 23.0 | 28.8 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 21.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | hold | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 27.7 | 24.2 | 17.6 | 14.8 | 17.0 | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| PTT E&P | PTTEP TB | buy | 159.00 | 188.00 | 19.5 | 26.3 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 14.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 83,000 | 103,000 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 40.8 | 4.7 | 6.8 |
| Asian E&P average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 17.8 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
Summary
The oil and gas sector in Asia and the broader region saw a mix of developments, including corporate strategy shifts, contract awards, and price fluctuations. Analysts maintain a positive outlook for several companies, including Bumi Armada, Petron Corp, and SapuraKencana Petroleum, with BUY ratings and target prices. The valuation data indicates that while some companies are undervalued, others are trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, suggesting potential for re-rating. The market remains dynamic, with significant investments and operational updates in key regions.
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