20171010-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_21页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 10 October 2017

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of market updates and stock analysis for various regions, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, as well as key indices and top picks. It highlights consumer trends, corporate developments, and financial metrics for specific companies such as Ctrip.com International and Geely Auto.

Main Points by Region

China

Consumer Sector:
- Golden Week Performance: Domestic tourism spending rose 14% yoy, with 705 million domestic tourists and Rmb584 billion in revenue. The travel-driven theme is expected to benefit FMCGs, hotels, and travel agencies.
- Macau Gaming: While tourist traffic held up, Golden Week GGR is likely to fall below market expectations, leading to a more conservative outlook on gaming stocks.
- Ctrip.com International (CTRP US):
  - Maintained BUY rating with a target price of US$63.00 (+13.1% upside from US$55.71).
  - Strong travel momentum and collaboration with Koubei to expand into the catering market.
  - Expected 40.7% yoy growth in turnover to Rmb27.1 billion for 2017.
  - Margin pressure in 4Q17 due to CAAC regulations, but partially offset by gains from Zhongan Online.
  - Financial metrics show improving profitability, with EBITDA margin rising to 13.0% in 2017F and net margin at 4.4%.
- Geely Auto (175 HK):
  - Raised target price to HK$31.00 (+15.5% upside from HK$26.85).
  - Stronger product pipelines, especially with Lynk & Co, which is expected to penetrate the mid-range segment.
  - New models like Vision X1 and X3 launched, with sales exceeding expectations.
  - Forecasted net profit growth of 6%, 21%, and 29% for 2017-2019.
  - Financial metrics show significant growth, with EBITDA rising to Rmb14,130m in 2017F and net profit reaching Rmb9,964m.

Indonesia

Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ):
- Re-initiated coverage with a HOLD rating and target price of Rp1,190.
- Seeking better catalysts for future performance.

Malaysia

Building Materials Sector:
- Steel prices hit a new high in September 2017, expected to sustain and lead to strong earnings in 2H17.
- Maintained OVERWEIGHT and BUY for Ann Joo.

Singapore

SIA Engineering (SIE SP):
- SELL rating with a target price of S$3.60.
- Valuations are normalising, but no immediate catalysts are expected.

Thailand

Thai Union Group (TU TB):
- BUY rating with a target price of Bt23.50.
- 3Q17 results are expected to be unexciting.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	22761.1	-0.1	0.9	4.4	15.2
S&P 500	2544.7	-0.2	0.6	3.4	13.7
FTSE 100	7507.9	-0.2	0.9	1.8	5.1
AS30	5805.1	0.5	0.2	1.1	1.5
CSI 300	3882.2	1.2	1.7	1.5	17.3
FSSTI	3291.6	0.0	0.9	2.0	14.3
HSCEI	11385.4	-0.6	4.7	2.1	21.2
HSI	28326.6	-0.5	3.3	2.4	28.8
JCI	5914.9	0.2	0.0	1.0	11.7
KLCI	1764.0	0.0	0.5	-0.9	7.4
KOSPI	2394.5	0.9	0.2	1.6	18.2
Nikkei 225	20690.7	0.3	1.6	7.3	8.2
SET	1692.2	-0.2	0.2	3.5	9.7
TWSE	10532.8	0.1	2.0	-0.7	13.8
BDI	1405	1.7	5.8	5.5	46.2
CPO (RM/mt)	2730	-0.3	0.5	-0.3	-14.7
Brent Crude	56	0.3	-0.6	3.7	-1.8

Top Picks

BUY

CSPC (1093 HK): Target price HK$15.24 (+12.9% upside from HK$13.50)
Hengan Intl (1044 HK): Target price HK$80.00 (+2.0% upside from HK$78.40)
Ace Hardware (ACES IJ): Target price IJ$1,300 (+0.4% upside from IJ$1,295)
Waskita Kanya (WSKT IJ): Target price IJ$3,000 (+66.7% upside from IJ$1,800)
Ekovest (EKO MK): Target price MK$1.45 (+33.0% upside from MK$1.09)
Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK): Target price MK$2.22 (+22.0% upside from MK$1.82)
OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price SP$13.38 (+17.5% upside from SP$11.39)
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price TB$600 (+20.5% upside from TB$498)

SELL

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price HK$5.50 (-44.3% downside from HK$9.88)
UMW Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price MK$4.80 (-12.2% downside from MK$5.47)

Key Assumptions

GDP Growth (yoy):
- US: 1.6 (2016), 2.5 (2017F), 2.5 (2018F)
- Euro Zone: 1.7 (2016), 1.8 (2017F), 1.6 (2018F)
- Japan: 1.0 (2016), 0.9 (2017F), 1.2 (2018F)
- Singapore: 2.0 (2016), 2.4 (2017F), 2.5 (2018F)
- Malaysia: 4.2 (2016), 5.0 (2017F), 4.9 (2018F)
- Thailand: 3.2 (2016), 3.3 (2017F), 3.3 (2018F)
- Indonesia: 5.0 (2016), 5.2 (2017F), 5.5 (2018F)
- Hong Kong: 1.9 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 2.0 (2018F)
- China: 6.7 (2016), 6.6 (2017F), 6.3 (2018F)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl): 45 (2016), 52 (2017F), 55 (2018F)
CPO (RM/mt): 2,653 (2016), 2,600 (2017F), 2,400 (2018F)

Corporate Events

Asian Gems Conference 2017: Singapore, 10–11 Oct
Post Conference Marketing on Indonesia Strategy: Singapore, 12 Oct
Analyst Presentation on Indonesia: Brunei, 16 Oct
Consumer Piece and Strategy: Hong Kong, 17–18 Oct
Luncheon with O-Net Technologies: Hong Kong, 17 Oct
Fintech Seminar 2017: Kuala Lumpur, 19 Oct
UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference: Kuala Lumpur, 13 Nov

Our Views

Consumer Sector in China: Strong Golden Week performance supports a positive outlook on consumption recovery, especially for travel-related stocks.
Ctrip.com International: Maintained BUY due to strong travel momentum, despite margin pressures from regulations.
Geely Auto: Maintained BUY with higher target price due to stronger product pipelines and expected sales growth.