期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2013no4_44页_2mb

NBER 2013 Reporter Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter is a publication of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920. It provides an overview of economic research, including lectures, summaries, and other relevant information. The 2013 issue includes the Martin Feldstein Lecture, which is delivered annually by a prominent economist, and a series of Research Summaries covering various economic topics.

Main Topics and Key Information

The 2013 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Economic Possibilities for Our Children

Speaker: Lawrence H. Summers
Topic: The long-term implications of technological change, particularly information technology, on the structure of the economy and employment.

Key Points:

• Keynesian Influence: The lecture references John Maynard Keynes' essay on economic possibilities for future generations, noting that while Keynes' prediction of income growth was accurate, his forecast about the workweek was not.
• Technological Displacement: Summers highlights how information technology is revolutionizing economic activity, with the example of self-driving cars, suggesting that automation is not just a threat but also a driver of productivity.
• Labor Market Changes: The non-employment rate for men aged 25 to 54 has been increasing, indicating a shift in the labor market. This is more pronounced for less educated and disadvantaged groups.
• Income Inequality: The share of income going to the top 1% has increased significantly, and Summers discusses the implications of this trend.
• Capital-Labor Substitution: He introduces a model where capital can either augment labor or substitute for it, leading to increased output but decreased wages and a higher capital share.
• Productivity and Demand: Productivity growth in some sectors can lead to a reduction in employment, especially in those with inelastic demand, such as healthcare and education.
• Moynihan's Corollary: This concept suggests that sectors with slow productivity growth will increasingly move into the public sector, which is a significant shift in economic structure.

Research Summary: The Economics of Obesity

Author: John Cawley
Topic: The economic analysis of obesity and its implications.

Key Points:

• Obesity Trends: The prevalence of obesity in the U.S. has doubled over the past three decades, with more than one-third of adult Americans now classified as obese.
• Health Impacts: Obesity contributes to significant health disparities and is linked to a large number of annual deaths globally.
• Measurement Issues: BMI, the standard measure of obesity, is criticized for not distinguishing between fat and lean mass. More accurate measures like body fat percentage and skinfold thickness are recommended.
• Economic Consequences: Research explores the economic causes and consequences of obesity, including its impact on public health and the effectiveness of policies aimed at improving diets and physical activity.
• Empirical Methods: Because randomized experiments on weight are unethical, economists use observational data and address issues of selection and omitted variables to infer causal relationships.

Conclusion

Summers concludes that the rapid changes brought about by information technology may have profound implications for future economic structures, employment, and income distribution. He emphasizes the need for a broader understanding of these changes and their effects on different sectors and groups within society. Cawley's research underscores the importance of accurate health metrics and the economic impact of obesity, highlighting the need for more nuanced policy approaches.