期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2014number3_28页_1mb

NBER 2014 Reporter Summary

Core Content

The 2014 Martin Feldstein Lecture, delivered by Stanley Fischer, focuses on the progress made in financial sector reform since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. Fischer, then Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, evaluates the implementation of reforms in three key areas: capital and liquidity ratios, macroprudential supervision, and the too big to fail (TBTF) problem.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. Capital and Liquidity Ratios

• Objective: To enhance the stability of the financial system by increasing capital and liquidity requirements.
• Basel III Agreement: Introduced stronger capital requirements compared to Basel II, which relied heavily on internal risk models.
• Key Reforms:
  • Minimum Tier 1 capital ratio increased from 4% to 6% of risk-weighted assets (RWAs).
  • Minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 4.5%.
  • Capital conservation buffer of 2.5%.
  • Countercyclical capital buffer to address excessive credit growth.
  • Minimum leverage ratio of 3% for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs).
• U.S. Specific Measures:
  • The Fed and other U.S. regulators increased the leverage ratio for U.S. G-SIBs to 5%.
  • Foreign banks with $50 billion or more in U.S. assets must form intermediate holding companies with similar capital requirements.
  • Community banks are generally exempt from these stricter rules.
• Liquidity Rules:
  • The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) ensures banks hold enough high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) to cover 30 days of stressed funding needs.
  • The Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) aims to ensure long-term stable funding.

2. Macroprudential Supervision

• Definition: Refers to the supervision of the financial system as a whole, not just individual institutions.
• Key Lessons from Israel:
  • Empirical Uncertainty: There is limited data on the effectiveness of macroprudential measures.
  • Political Sensitivity: Measures to reduce housing demand can be politically contentious.
  • Coordination Needs: Multiple regulators must work together to address systemic risks.
• U.S. vs. U.K. Approaches:
  • U.S.: The Dodd-Frank Act established the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which primarily coordinates rather than enforces.
  • U.K.: The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has legal authority to impose changes on regulators.
• Don Kohn's Recommendations:
  • Add financial stability to the mandates of all regulatory bodies.
  • Grant the FSOC more independence and tools to address systemic risks effectively.

3. Too Big to Fail (TBTF)

• Definition: The idea that governments may intervene to save large banks, which can distort market discipline.
• Empirical Evidence:
  • Large banks typically receive a financing premium (lower interest rates) due to perceived government support.
  • The IMF estimated a 15 basis point premium in the U.S., 25-60 in Japan, 20-60 in the U.K., and 60-90 in the Euro area.
• Risk Factors:
  • Larger banks tend to have lower capital ratios, less stable funding, and more market-based activities.
  • These factors contribute to systemic risk, though not necessarily individual risk.
• Historical Context:
  • The TBTF problem is not unique to the U.S. — large banks in Canada and Australia have not led to major financial crises.
  • The Canadian banking system's stability is attributed to open competition and less adventurous behavior by banks.

Key Information

• The Great Recession (2007–2009) was the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, but the impact was mitigated by proactive policy measures.
• Macroprudential supervision has evolved as a critical tool for managing asset price risks and systemic stability.
• TBTF remains a central issue in financial reform due to the potential for large-scale economic damage and the large sums involved in government interventions.
• Regulatory reforms have increased the capital and liquidity requirements of large banks, though the effectiveness of these measures is still debated.
• Coordination among regulators is essential for successful macroprudential policy, with the U.K. model considered more effective than the U.S. model.

NBER Overview

• The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• It is dedicated to objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• Leadership:
  • President and CEO: James M. Poterba
  • Controller: Kelly Horak
  • Corporate Secretary: Altera Milone
• Board of Directors includes prominent economists from various universities and organizations.
• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain independence and flexibility in research.

Additional Highlights

• Financial sector reform has focused on preventing future crises through improved regulation and supervision.
• The Dodd-Frank Act played a key role in shaping U.S. financial regulation, including the creation of the FSOC.
• Shadow banking and credit rating agencies are also areas of focus in the reform agenda.
• The financial stability of the U.S. banking system has improved, with significant increases in capital and liquidity ratios.

Conclusion

Stanley Fischer emphasizes that while significant progress has been made in financial sector reform, challenges remain. The reforms have helped prevent a second Great Depression, but the TBTF issue continues to be a focal point. Macroprudential supervision is still in development, and regulatory coordination is critical for its success. The U.S. and U.K. models differ in structure and effectiveness, with the U.K. system being more centralized and powerful. Overall, the financial system is more resilient today, but further improvements are necessary to ensure long-term stability.