2017年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Belize_for_the_Period_FY18-22_78页_1mb

Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Belize (FY18-22) Summary

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Belize, covering the period from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2022, outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) program and anticipated results. It builds on the lessons from Belize's first CPF (FY12-15) and aligns with the Government of Belize's (GoB) long-term development vision, Horizon 2030: National Development Framework 2010-2030, and the thematic priorities from the 2016 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD).

The CPF is organized around two Focus Areas:

1. Fostering Climate Resilience and Environmental Sustainability
2. Promoting Financial Inclusion and Social Resilience

The proposed program could reach up to US$30 million in new loans, contingent on performance, continued Government interest in IBRD financing, and IBRD's lending capacity. It will also be supported by non-lending instruments such as Analytics and Advisory Services (ASAs), regional initiatives, and trust fund resources.

Main Views and Key Information

Country Context and Development Agenda

• Economic Overview: Belize is an upper-middle-income country in Central America with strong ties to the Caribbean. It has a diversified export basket, including agriculture and tourism, which are the main contributors to GDP and employment.
• Economic Vulnerabilities:
  • High exposure to external shocks (e.g., global financial crises, climate events, and commodity price fluctuations).
  • Tourism accounts for 38.1% of GDP and 34.3% of employment, making it the most important industry.
  • Agriculture is the second-largest sector, contributing 13% of GDP, and is vital for poverty reduction and livelihoods, especially in rural areas.
  • Oil was once a key growth driver but has declined in importance due to low prices and depleting reserves.
• Poverty Trends:
  • Poverty rates have increased from 34% in 2002 to 42% in 2009, with no significant data since.
  • The bottom 40% of the population is mostly in rural areas, with the highest poverty rates in Corozal and Toledo.
  • Ethnic disparities are evident, with Mayans having the highest poverty incidence at 77% in 2009, compared to 27% for Creoles.
  • Gender and youth disparities persist, with women and youth being more vulnerable to unemployment and poverty.
• Climate and Natural Disasters:
  • Belize is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, with annual losses equivalent to 4% of GDP.
  • Coastal areas and watershed regions are particularly at risk from hurricanes, flooding, and storm surges.
  • Natural capital (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, tropical forests) is critical for climate resilience, soil conservation, and tourism and agriculture.
• Government Strategy:
  • The Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy (GSDS) outlines medium-term goals (2016-2019) and longer-term objectives (poverty reduction and sustainable development).
  • The GoB has identified four critical success factors:
    • Natural resource and environmental preservation
    • Social cohesion and resilience
    • Enhanced governance and citizen security
    • National income and investment optimization

CPF Objectives and Implementation

• The CPF aims to support economic resilience by addressing climate, financial, and social vulnerabilities.
• It is designed to be flexible, with adjustments made during implementation based on Performance and Learning Review (PLR).
• The CPF will focus on climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable agriculture, financial inclusion, and social protection.
• Key Projects and Initiatives:
  • Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (CRIP)
  • Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project (MCCAP)
  • Sustainable Agriculture (CSA)
  • Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET)
  • Entrepreneurship Program for Innovation in the Caribbean (EPIC)

Challenges and Risks

• Economic Vulnerabilities:
  • High public expenditure-to-GDP ratio due to small state characteristics and limited fiscal space.
  • Current-account deficit has widened due to declining agricultural and fisheries exports, rising imports, and reduced FDI inflows.
• Financial Sector Weaknesses:
  • High non-performing loans (NPLs) and de-risking measures by international banks have constrained financial inclusion.
• Social Vulnerabilities:
  • Poverty and unemployment are more prevalent among women, youth, and ethnic minorities.
  • Limited access to quality housing and protective infrastructure in vulnerable areas exacerbates risks from natural disasters.

Conclusion

The CPF for Belize is a strategic, flexible, and focused initiative designed to enhance economic resilience, promote sustainable development, and address social and environmental vulnerabilities. It aligns with the GoB's long-term vision and the WBG's twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The framework emphasizes climate adaptation, financial inclusion, and social resilience, with a strong focus on vulnerable groups and sectors. Implementation will involve stakeholder consultations, performance monitoring, and adjustments based on learning reviews and feedback.